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Ahmed Mahmood looks at the spot in Myo Thu Gyi village, in Myanmar's Rakhine state, where he saw the Myanmar Border Guard Police executing three villagers, on March 19, 2017 Photo: Antolin Avezuela Aristu

By Carlos Sardina Galache
April 6, 2017

Maungdaw: On the morning of Oct. 10, Hussein Muhammad, an old Rohingya man who doesn’t know his age, was awoken at 6 a.m. by a noise outside his home. When he stepped outside, he saw that dozens of soldiers and members of Myanmar's Border Guard Police had his hut surrounded.

“They asked us if there was any ‘terrorist’ in our house," he says, speaking from his home in Myo Thu Gyi village near Maungdaw town, in Myanmar's western Rakhine state. "Then they dragged two of my grandsons. I tried to stop them and give them my family list to show them they were my grandsons, but they beat me up and threatened me with their weapons,” Muhammad recounts, breaking into tears.

His two grandsons, Ali Muhammed and Ali Ayaz, were 20 and 13 years old respectively. They were dragged to a small forest locally known as “betel garden” on the fringe of the village. There, Muhammad says, they were executed along with another man.

The raid on Myo Thu Gyi village followed a series of attacks on Oct. 9, in which a group of suspected Rohingya insurgents stormed three Border Guard posts in Rakhine state's Maungdaw and Rathedaung towns, killing nine policemen. In response to the attacks, the Myanmar military launched violent counteroperations in the north of the state, in which several villages were burnt to the ground, and up to 1,000 Rohingya people may have been killed. In the wake of the so-called clearance operation, more than 70,000 people fled to Bangladesh, bringing with them stories of extrajudicial killings, gang rape and children thrown into the flames of burning buildings.

Myo Thu Gyi was the first village attacked by the security forces. Until now, the area has been completely closed off to foreign journalists, but TIME was granted a permit to visit Maungdaw independently, the first since the violence began.

Ahmed Mahmood, a farmer in his late 20s from the same village as Hussein Muhammad, was hiding in a hut nearby and says he saw the executions. "Four members of the Border Guard Police made them sit down on the ground with their hands under their legs. One of the policemen executed them while the others were looking around. He kicked them first in their backs and then put a bullet in their heads, one by one. He shot the youngest one twice, once in his back and once in his head," Mahmood says.

According to several eyewitnesses interviewed by TIME in Myo Thu Gyi, seven villagers were killed on Oct. 10. Villagers say the military returned hours after the assault and took four bodies with them. Relatives and neighbors say they were able to hide three other corpses and gave them a proper Muslim burial the next day.

About 80% of the population in the area, along the border with Bangladesh, belong to the 1 million strong Rohingya Muslim community, an ethnic group that has suffered decades of persecution at the hands of the Myanmar government. Labeled as “Bengalis” by authorities, they are regarded as illegal interlopers from Bangladesh and denied citizenship. Most live in apartheid-like conditions with restrictions on education, healthcare and freedom of movement.

Laura Haigh, Myanmar researcher for Amnesty International, who investigated the incident and spoke with eyewitnesses, said the killings are part of a wider pattern. “What happened in Myo Thu Gyi is a clear example of how security forces targeted villagers at random, often without any evidence or known links to armed groups," she says, adding that the military and police would enter villages and open fire "shooting at people even as they fled."

"The lack of access to the area, and intimidation and threats against those who speak out means that we simply do not know how many were killed during this appalling offensive," says Haigh.

The speed at which the military moved in on the village — just one day after the attacks on the Border Guard posts — has experts doubting that proper investigations were carried out.

“It is impossible that the security forces could have enough time to have conducted a proper investigation to ascertain if there were insurgents hiding in that village,” says Chris Lewa, director of Arakan Project, a human-rights watchdog that has been documenting human-rights violations in Rakhine state for years. “And how a 13-year-old child could take part in the insurgency? Those were just random summary executions,” she adds.

“My grandsons had nothing to do with the insurgency, they were here in our house when the insurgents attacked the Border Guard Police. They just sell betel nut, work and try to study,” Muhammad says.

A convoy of the Myanmar police patrols the streets of Maungdaw Town during the night curfew on in Maungdaw, Myanmar, on March 19, 2017 Photo: Antolin Avezuela Aristu

Five months after the attacks and subsequent raids, daily life in Maungdaw — a dusty city near the Naf River marking the border between Myanmar and Bangladesh — continues, though a curfew remains in place from 9 p.m. until 6 a.m. In an unusual display of openness, the security forces allowed TIME to accompany a police convoy patrolling the town.

As the three trucks wound their way through the streets, the contrast between the Rohingya and the Rakhine quarters was stark, at least during the first hour of the curfew. Though the majority of people living in Maungdaw are Rohingya Muslims, the town has a sizable Rakhine Buddhist community and the two ethnic groups mostly live in separate neighborhoods. The patrol passed houses with lights on; people sit watching TV or talk with neighbors in their courtyards. "This is a Rakhine quarter," said the police. But the Rohingya areas were eerily deserted: all windows closed, no lights were turned on, and no human presence visible.

Since the crackdown, about 600 people have been arrested on charges of terrorism, the government said. Security forces are still trying to find the leaders, though the police captain in charge of the patrol says he knows who they are. “We haven’t been able to find them so far, they must be hiding somewhere. We know their faces and their names," says Kyaw Aye Hlaing, adding: "For us all these 'Bengalis' look the same, so it’s difficult to recognize them."

In the darkness, 4 km away, lay Myo Thu Gyi. Kyaw Aye Hlaing says that the security forces launched the first assault on that particular village in October because the village "is full of extremists."

"It was a very troublesome village during the violence in 2012,” he says, referring to the successive waves of attacks between the Buddhist and Muslim communities that swept Rakhine state that year, resulting in up to 200 deaths and 140,000 internally displaced people, most of them Rohingya.

A few days after TIME visited the area, the U.N. Human Rights Council approved a resolution on March 24 to "dispatch urgently" an international fact-finding mission to probe alleged abuses by military and security forces, particularly against the Rohingya community. The Myanmar government, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, rejected the decision, alleging that the probe would only "inflame" the situation in Rakhine. Myanmar authorities have been accused of pursuing a campaign of ethnic cleansing against the Rohingya, which on Wednesday Suu Kyi denied, saying it was "too strong an expression" to use.

For those whose lives have been shattered by the crackdown in Maungdaw, there is little hope for recourse.

"There is no protection for us," Muhammad says. "I know we will never get justice for this."

The names of all the Rohingya villagers interviewed for this report have been changed for security reasons.

Asia is 8 months pregnant as she stands for a photo with her son in the Balu Kali refugee camp in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, on Jan. 17, 2017. Allison Joyce—Getty Images

By Feliz Solomon
March 24, 2017

The U.N. Human Rights Council agreed Friday to create an international fact-finding mission into alleged rights violations in Myanmar, particularly against the country's Rohingya Muslims, a stateless minority that has suffered decades of persecution in the western state of Rakhine.

A resolution adopted by consensus says the 47-member council has decided to "dispatch urgently an independent international fact-finding mission" to investigate allegations that may amount to crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing, "with a view to ensure full accountability for perpetrators and justice for victims."

The U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, Yanghee Lee, had initially urged the council to establish a full commission of inquiry, the body's most powerful investigative tool, but members ultimately reached a compromise on a fact-finding mission that Myanmar and its neighbors would be more likely to agree to. While the resolution passed, Myanmar and several other nations, including the Philippines, "disassociated" themselves from the resolution in whole or in part.

The mission will likely focus on events that unfolded since Oct. 9 of last year, when Myanmar's army and other state security forces began what they called "clearance operations" in the northern part of Rakhine state in response to a deadly attack on border patrols by suspected Rohingya insurgents.

Tens of thousands of refugees poured over the border into Bangladesh in the weeks and months that followed, arriving with harrowing accounts of gang-rape, torture, arson and extrajudicial killing. A U.N. flash report published in early February, based on interviews with more than 200 victims, details the alleged atrocities, concluding the "likely commission of crimes against humanity."

Amnesty International's Director for Southeast Asia and the Pacific, Champa Patel, welcomed the "long overdue step" of establishing an international probe, urging the U.N. to "waste no time turning words into action" and to appoint gender-based violence and children's rights experts to the panel, given the high volume of violations alleged against women and children.

"The people of Myanmar in general and the Rohingya community in particular have the right to know the full truth, as does the international community," Patel said in a statement to the media.

The Myanmar government, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, has largely denied the allegations, claiming that the international community is exaggerating the gravity of the events. The credibility and impartiality of domestic inquiries, including one headed by Vice President and former General Myint Swe, has been called into question by U.N. officials and rights groups. The resolution recognized, however, that the Myanmar government "notes the seriousness" of the contents of the flash report, acknowledged domestic efforts to investigate and called on the government to "consider assistance" to strengthen them.

The resolution is the most serious intervention to date into the crisis in Rakhine, an impoverished state bordering Bangladesh where most of Myanmar's 1.1 million Rohingya live. The rapporteur warned last week that the government "may be trying to expel the Rohingya population from the country altogether.” An estimated 94,000 Rohingya have been displaced since October, most of them to Bangladesh.

Violence between minority Muslims and the majority Rakhine Buddhists in the state capital Sittwe that began in 2012 displaced more than 100,000 Rohingya, most of whom still live in squalid displacement camps which they are not allowed to leave. Lee's initial request for an inquiry also called for a probe into the events leading up to the 2012 exodus, which remain a mystery.

It is unclear whether the 2012 violence will fall within the scope of the newly established fact-finding mission.

The Myanmar government has kept in place long-standing policies of state discrimination, such as a 1982 citizenship law linking political rights to ethnic identity; restrictions on family life; and excessive regulations governing access to healthcare, education and employment that appear to amount to apartheid.

A commission chaired by former U.N. chief Kofi Annan at the behest of Suu Kyi has been tasked with making recommendations to alleviate the crisis. The panel, which has no investigative mandate, published its initial guidance last week, calling on the government to allow unfettered humanitarian access to all people affected by the recent violence, many of whom have been completely unreachable for more than five months due to the lockdown.

Annan's commission also called on Suu Kyi's government to allow media access to affected areas, pursue accountability for alleged human rights violations, establish a clear path to citizenship and close all displacement camps in the state.

The wide-ranging U.N. resolution adopted Friday also addresses a number of other human rights concerns in the country, notably including an escalation in charges of criminal defamation targeting journalists, politicians and social media users.

Friends and relatives prepare for a wedding at the Baw Du Pha Rohingya displacement camp in Rakhine state, Myanmar, on March 12, 2017 (Photo: Aung Naing Soe)

By Feliz Solomon 
March 13, 2017

Sittwe -- People live, love and die in Baw Du Pha, an encampment for Rohingya Muslims displaced by conflict in western Myanmar nearly five years ago. They used to think they would someday go home, but many have long since given up on that hope. Life in the camp, however, goes on, albeit much differently than before the unrest.

Maung Tha Zan and Minara Begum were married on a rainy Sunday afternoon within the barbed-wire confines of a sprawling cluster of displacement camps, home to more than 100,000 people who, for the most part, are barred from leaving. Theirs wasn't an arranged marriage, the 20-year-old groom, clean-shaven in his finest coat and aviator sunglasses, tells TIME, "it was love at first sight." He hopes they'll have children someday, Allah willing. "I'm very happy," Maung Tha Zan says, "but on the other hand I'm also sad because I can't have my wedding at home."

The bride waits for him in a vibrantly decorated bamboo hut in the neighboring encampment, wearing a sparkling crimson dress and veil. She's a very shy 18-year-old, but she speaks to TIME briefly through an interpreter. "I'm very happy because I'm going to marry the one I love," she says as a generator leased for the occasion sputters to a stop and the string of lights overhead flickers out.

Most days in the camps in western Myanmar's troubled Rakhine state are far less joyous. The one before, for instance. By 10 a.m. on Saturday, the site's main clinic was crowded with women holding sick, lethargic children, mostly seeking treatment for stomach problems like diarrhea. The frequency of illness is hardly surprising; medical care is scarce — as it is elsewhere in this underdeveloped country of about 51 million people — and sanitary conditions are abysmal. Unclothed kids play in a stream of dirty water close to the camp's latrines, human waste scattered on the ground nearby.

The encampment was established mid-2012, when riots between Buddhists and Muslims broke out in the city of Sittwe, about a 10-minute drive away. The city has since been strictly segregated; the downtown Muslim quarter, Aung Mingalar, is guarded by police armed with assault rifles, and residents cannot leave without permission from authorities. Even seeking treatment at a nearby hospital involves a complex and often extortionate bureaucratic process. Foreigners, when granted permission to enter, are followed and photographed. While it can be difficult to access and assess some areas, it's plain to see that this is a city sharply divided; Buddhists are free while Muslims are not.

"Sadly, those camps are becoming permanent, and the likelihood of many of the people there returning home has diminished to the impossible," David Mathieson, an independent analyst and human-rights expert based in Myanmar, tells TIME.

This week the U.N. Human Rights Council meets in Geneva to decide on a wide-ranging resolution on human rights in Myanmar, which until a few years ago was considered a pariah state ruled by a brutal and impenetrable military regime. March 31 will mark one year since a new civilian government assumed office, led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who now serves as State Counselor. The U.N. rights envoy for Myanmar, Yanghee Lee, delivers her recommendations to the U.N. council on Monday; she will suggest that the body establish a commission of inquiry to investigate the "systematic, structural and institutional discrimination" and "long-standing persecution" of the Rohingya population. Her focus will be on conflicts that erupted in June 2012 — which caused the exodus of people still confined in this Sittwe complex — and on Oct. 9 of last year, when an attack on security forces by suspected Rohingya insurgents triggered a scorched-earth counterterrorism operation by the army that displaced approximately94,000 people and likely left hundreds dead.

A draft version of the resolution, penned by the European Union and viewed by a number of human-rights experts in advance, does not mandate a full U.N. commission of inquiry, against the guidance of several rights experts and the rapporteur herself. While there is still time to influence the language of the resolution, which will be handed down on Thursday, there is still some disagreement among the rights community about what an official inquiry would achieve. Given the extreme nature of the October violence and the Myanmar government's near blanket denial of any wrongdoing by state security forces, experts are advocating for some form of international accountability mechanisms and practical policy measures that would address urgent humanitarian needs. Some stakeholders also appear reluctant to bring criticism upon Suu Kyi's government, which is viewed as a source of stability and hope for the nation's transition from dictatorship to democracy.

In Rakhine, journalists and aid workers have been barred from Maungdaw, a township north of the state capital Sittwe, where the latest outbreak of violence took place. But it's apparent here in Sittwe that little has been done to aid the Rohingya, a stateless religious and ethnic minority sequestered in impoverished ghettos and surrounded by their Rakhine Buddhist neighbors, with whom they once shared social and commercial ties. The Rakhine are the majority in the eponymous state, now said to be the country's poorest, but are a minority in Myanmar, and as such they have their own long-standing and legitimate grievances with the central government. During military rule, which lasted nearly six grueling and isolated decades, the country's many minorities suffered under policies favoring the culture and well-being of the majority Bamar ethnic group.

New political space, coupled with the government's reluctance to curtail provocateurs, have allowed extremist movements to take root and marginalize minority faiths, particularly Muslims. Myanmar's most notorious firebrand, the Buddhist monk Wirathu, was just last week disciplined by the national religious authority — which banned him from giving public sermons for a year — for delivering unabashedly anti-Muslim speeches arguably amounting to incitement to violence. Nonetheless, his hardline version of Buddhist nationalism has already gained popularity among the Rakhine population, where support has also galvanized for a local political party that campaigned on a virulently anti-Muslim platform.

The Rohingya are viewed by many as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh despite living in the country for generations. They are portrayed as dirty, dangerous interlopers, and their presence in western Myanmar has even used to drum up support for strict border security and discriminatory junta-era citizenship criteria linking political rights to racial and religious identity. Without those political rights — most Rohingya lack legal status, and consequently suffer severe restrictions on movement, livelihoods, education and health care — they are losing hope of ever being fully reintegrated into Myanmar society. “We used to be able to leave the village," says Fatima Katu, 45, as she waits at the clinic for a medic to treat her visibly unwell 3-month-old granddaughter who she says has been suffering from seizures. "Now we can’t.”

— With reporting by Aung Naing Soe / Sittwe

A Rohingya Muslim woman and her son cry after being caught by Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) while illegally crossing at a border check point in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, on Nov. 21, 2016 (Photo: Mohammad Ponir Hossain—REUTERS)


By Nikhil Kumar
December 12, 2016

Teknaf, Bangladesh:

Around 21,000 Rohingya have sought refuge in Bangladesh over the past two months, as Burmese forces launched what one U.N official says is “getting very close to what we would all agree are crimes against humanity.” TIME reports from the Bangladesh border, where the full horror is only just emerging

If the Naf River could talk, which horror story would it tell first?

The narrow waterway marks the border between Burma and Bangladesh. On its western bank is the Bangladeshi province of Chittagong. To the east, Burma’s Arakan state, also known as Rakhine, home to the Buddhist-majority country’s Rohingya people, a Muslim minority described over the years as stateless, friendless and forgotten.

But if the river could remember their stories, it might speak, for example, of the night in late November when Arafa, a 25-year-old Rohingya woman, entered its waters with her five children.

She used to have six. As she talks, sitting on the threshold of a hut in a makeshift refugee camp on the Bangladeshi side of the Naf, she is surrounded by her son and four young daughters. They are a lively bunch, noisy, restless, yet shy, hiding behind their mother’s back or running in and out of the hut, as she recounts what happened to her second son.

He was 8 years old. Sometime around Nov. 22, Arafa says her village was attacked by Burmese security forces. Viewed as illegal immigrants and denied citizenship rights by the Burmese state, the Rohingya have long faced intimidation, oppression and violence at the hands of both Buddhist extremists and the country’s security forces. The last major sectarian spasm was in 2012, when clashes between Arakanese Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims displaced some 125,000 people. Rights activists accused security forces of either standing aside as the violence spread, or actively participating in it.

This time, Arafa says, the army’s assault felt different. The security men seemed more determined, more driven, to punish the Rohingya. Their weapon of choice was fire.

Arafa says that the military torched her village. As the flames engulfed her home, she just about managed to escape with her six children. That was when the family was confronted by a Burmese soldier. He snatched the fleeing 8-year-old, separating him from his brother and sisters, and flung him into the blaze.

In the chaos, Arafa lost sight of her husband. But she could not turn back; she had to leave him behind, leave her son’s charred body behind, and mourn on the move.

“I had to save my other children. We had to escape [from Burma],” she tells TIME. “They burned everything.”

For two days, Arafa and her children hid in the forests that skirt the riverbank on the Burmese side, laying low to avoid detection by troops, before boarding a rickety boat that took them to safety across the Naf.

A patrol of Bangladeshi Border Guards attempts to prevent Rohingya refugees from crossing into Bangladesh from Burma, on the banks of the Naf River, near Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, on Nov. 22, 2016 (Anik Rahman/NurPhoto/Sipa USA)

They are not alone. Arafa’s family are among the estimated 21,000 Rohingya who have sought refuge in Bangladesh over the past two months, as Burmese forces launched what testimony from refugees, satellite imagery compiled by rights groups and leaked photos and videos from inside Arakan indicate is a horrifyingly bloody crackdown against the million-strong Muslim minority.

The latest troubles began in early October, when police said three border guard posts were attacked by Islamist militants. Nine policemen were killed, with the government saying the attackers belonged to an extremist group called Aqa Mul Mujahidin. A statement from the Burmese President’s office linked them to the Rohingya Solidarity Organization, a militant group long thought to be defunct. The only proof for these claims was the government’s word.

What followed has been described by Burmese authorities as “clearance operations.” Amnesty International, the rights group, calls it “collective punishment”: a ferocious campaign of violent reprisals against an entire people. In addition to arson attacks on Rohingya villages, the military has been accused of raping Rohingya women and conducting extrajudicial killings of Muslims. Helicopter gunships have been used to fire on Rohingya villages.

Satellite imagery released by Human Rights Watch show that more than 800 buildings were destroyed in five different Rohingya villages between Nov. 10 and 18. An earlier set of high-resolution images showed the destruction of more than 400 homes in three villages between Oct. 22 and Nov. 10. The actual number of destroyed buildings could be higher, given the dense tree cover in the area, the rights group says.

Verifying the picture on the ground is impossible, as Burma has sealed off the affected areas. But the news that is coming out suggests that the situation is “getting very close to what we would all agree are crimes against humanity,” says Yanghee Lee, the U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, as the country is officially known.

“I am getting reports from inside the country and from neighboring places too that things are not as they are being portrayed by the government. We are seeing a lot of very graphic and very disturbing photos and video clips,” she tells TIME. Although unable to independently verify the footage, she says: “We do hear about rape and sexual violence, and even bodies of little kids being uncovered.”

“We can’t verify the numbers of how many have been killed. Many have gone into hiding,” Lee adds, expressing her dissatisfaction with a government-supervised trip to some of the affected areas by a group of foreign diplomats and a U.N. official in early November.

“No one should be satisfied with the trip,” she says. “This was a guided tour. Even though there was a heavy security presence there, people started to come out and try to speak to this delegation. And of course, afterwards, we’ve also heard that there were reprisals. These people were hunted down.”

On Dec. 9, 14 diplomatic missions, including the embassies of the U.S. and France, called on Burma to give humanitarian agencies “full and unfettered access” to northern Arakan, “noting that tens of thousands of people who need humanitarian aid, including children with acute malnutrition, have been without it now for nearly two months.”

The official Burmese response to the allegations of rights abuses has been denial and, reflecting the low opinion many Burmese have of the Rohingya, callous dismissal. When asked by the BBC about claims of rape by the Burmese military, Aung Win, a local politician and chairman of a state investigation into the October border posts attack, couldn’t even keep a straight face. Giggling into the camera, he said soldiers would not rape Rohingya women because “they are very dirty … [They] have a very low standard of living and poor hygiene,” Aung Win said. “They are not attractive. So neither the local Buddhist men or the soldiers are interested in them.”

Meanwhile, the country’s top military man, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, blames the Rohingya for their woes. Referring to them as “Bengali,” a term which implies that they belong across the Naf in Bangladesh, a Dec. 6 post on his Facebook page said: “The Bengali problems in the northern Rakhine State occurred because of the Bengalis’ failure to abide by the existing laws of Myanmar.” And even as Burmese officials promise to investigate claims of rights abuses, the post seemed to pre-judge the outcome: “Myanmar security forces have never committed any human rights violations such as illegal killing, rape and arson attack.”

“It seems like the same old story [from the Burmese authorities], that these people torched their own houses,” says Lee, the U.N. rights investigator.

A Human Rights Watch researcher who recently visited the Bangladeshi side of the border, speaking on condition of anonymity so as not to risk losing access to the area, says testimony from recent Rohingya escapees is uniform on this question: “We haven’t spoken to anybody who has told us that the burnings have been done by anyone other than the military.”

Amid the unfolding crisis, one voice has been largely absent — Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, whose National League for Democracy party won a landslide victory in elections in November 2015.

The polls marked Burma’s transition from military dictatorship to its first civilian-led administration in more than half a century. A new military-drafted constitution prohibited Suu Kyi from becoming President, and the generals retained control over Burma’s security apparatus. But she is the nation’s de facto leader, occupying a Prime Minister–like position as Burma’s State Counselor.

Under dictatorship, Suu Kyi’s single-minded determination to challenge the military, the personal sacrifices she made and the years of political detention she endured to bring democracy to her country transformed her into an international human-rights icon. But as northern Arakan burns, she has been proffering bromides about the need for the outside world to be less critical. What’s needed, she says, is a better understanding of the region’s ethnic divisions.

“I would appreciate it so much if the international community would help us to maintain peace and stability and to make progress in building better relations between the two communities [there] instead of always drumming up calls for, well, for bigger fires of resentment, if you like,” she told Singapore’s state-owned Channel News Asia in a rare interview earlier this month. “I’m not saying there are no difficulties, but it helps if people recognize the difficulty and are more focused on resolving these difficulties rather than exaggerating them so that everything seems worse than it really is.”

“She is obviously very reluctant to criticize the military, because she fears that any sort of antagonism towards it could prompt it to assert itself more forcefully,” says Francis Wade, a sometime TIME contributor who has worked in the country, and the author of an upcoming book on anti-Muslim violence and the democratic transition there. “If the military felt that it was losing power to the civilian government, because that government is criticizing it and trying to reign it in, then it might try and reassert its supremacy.”

That dynamic — between a civilian government still consolidating its power and a military machine bent on preserving its influence — has tempered international criticism of Suu Kyi’s stance. “I think the international community is seeing [Burma] in relative terms,” says the U.N.’s Lee. “This is a civilian elected government, it’s been less than a year [since they came to power], let’s give them a little time and space. That’s been the narrative.”

But that view becomes less and less credible as time passes. “Suu Kyi may need more time to maneuver. But she only has five years [the term of the elected government], and already a year is going by,” says Lee.

Adds Wade: “You do have a very difficult relationship between the civilian government and the military, but at the moment, the civilian government is playing into the hands of the military.”

Suu Kyi’s stance is only the latest in a long series of disappointments for Burma’s Muslims. “She’s not doing anything to protect us,” says Yunus, a 30-year-old Rohingya refugee who fled to Bangladesh in November. “We thought there would be a change. But she is the same as everyone else.”

The consequences could be far reaching. “There has traditionally been very little broad support among the Rohingya for armed conflict,” says Wade. “Even when there were several insurgent groups operating there from the mid-1970s to the early to mid-1990s, there was still quite scant support for them, hence they died out quite quickly.” The Rohingya, he explains, have been wary of provoking the Burmese state: “It was recognized quite early on that any sort of armed movement would be collective suicide.”

But the worsening situation in northern Arakan raises troubling red flags, with Daniel Russel, the top U.S. diplomat for East Asia, issuing a stark warning about the potential fallout. “If mishandled, Rakhine state could be infected and infested by jihadism which already plagues neighboring Bangladesh and other countries,” he told the Associated Press on Dec. 3.

For the Rohingya, the crisis doesn’t end on the Burmese side. Yusuf, Arafa and their families managed to escape and reach land in Bangladesh by avoiding detection from both Burmese and Bangladeshi forces. But in the days since, Bangladesh has stepped up patrols along its border with Burma, putting an additional squeeze on the persecuted population. Many refugees have gone missing, after their boasts capsized in the river’s choppy waters.

A Rohingya refugee woman with her boy in a refugee camp at Teknaf, Bangladesh, on Nov. 27, 2016 (Photo: K M Asad—LightRocket/Getty Images)

It is not the first time that the Rohingya have sought shelter across the river. Over the decades, as they fled violence at home, as many as half a million undocumented Rohingya refugees have made their lives in Bangladesh. More than 30,000 registered refugees live in camps near the border. Now Bangladesh says: We can’t accommodate any more people.

“My country is a house. If all the people try to get inside my house, what will happen? I cannot allow all of them,” says Colonel M.M. Anisur Rahman, the deputy director general of Border Guard Bangladesh, the force charged with patrolling the border area.

Bangladesh’s policy, he says, is to push back fleeing refugees. “Of course we are concerned, and if they ask any help regarding food, water and other things, we will provide it. But we cannot provide shelter,” he insists. Those who have slipped in, avoiding detection, will be caught and sent back.”

To this, Du Du Mian, a Rohingya refugee who arrived in Bangladesh more than a decade ago, answers: “The world needs to realize that we have nowhere to go.” His people, he says, have no country. With Burmese soldiers trying to stop them from fleeing and Bangladeshi forces pushing them back, all they have is the Naf, and the Naf, so far, is silent.

— With reporting by A.K.M. Moinuddin / Teknaf and Feliz Solomon / Hong Kong

Rohingya Muslims who have fled from violence in Burma take shelter at the Leda unregistered Rohingya camp in Teknaf, Bangladesh, on Dec. 5 2016 (Zakir Hossain Chowdhury—Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)

By Nikhil Kumar
December 12, 2016

"Things are not as they are being portrayed by the government"

Reports from Burma’s northern Arakan state, where violence against the country’s Rohingya Muslim minority has forced tens of thousands to flee for their lives, suggest the situation there is “getting very close to what we would all agree are crimes against humanity,” the U.N.’s top human-rights investigator for the country has said.

“I am getting reports from inside the country and from neighboring places too that things are not as they are being portrayed by the government. We are seeing a lot of very graphic and very disturbing photos and video clips,” Yanghee Lee, the U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in the country, tells TIME.

Burma has imposed a lockdown on the affected areas, as it conducts what it calls “clearance operations” following an attack on three border guard posts in early October. Nine policemen were killed in the attack, which the Burmese authorities blamed on Islamist militants.

But fears have been growing for the million-strong Rohingya people who live in the area, amid allegations of rape, extrajudicial killings and the torching of Rohingya villages by the Burmese military, which denies the claims.

Seen as illegal immigrants from neighboring Bangladesh and denied citizenship rights, the Rohingya have long been marginalized in Burma. In 2012, some 125,000 people were displaced amid communal fighting between Arakanese Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims, with rights groups accusing security forces of either standing aside or actively participating in the violence.

As Arakan burns again, with around 21,000 people fleeing to Bangladesh in recent months, Lee called on the Burmese authorities to allow full humanitarian access to the northern section of the state that is also known as Rakhine. She also expressed her dissatisfaction with a government-supervised trip to some of the affected areas by a group of foreign diplomats and a U.N. official in early November. “No one should be satisfied with the trip,” she says. “This was a guided tour. Even though there was a heavy security presence there, people started to come out and try to speak to this delegation. And of course, afterwards, we’ve also heard that there were reprisals. These people were hunted down.”

On Dec. 9, 14 diplomatic missions, including the embassies of the U.S. and France, also called on Burma to give humanitarian agencies “full and unfettered access” to northern Arakan, “noting that tens of thousands of people who need humanitarian aid, including children with acute malnutrition, have been without it now for nearly two months.”

Photo: Soe Zeya Tun/Reuters

By Simon Lewis
TIME
July 15, 2016

However, long rooted anti-Muslim sentiment shows few other signs of abating

The rise of a sometimes violent anti-Muslim movement has tarnished Burma’s transition from a military dictatorship toward democracy. But the country’s hard-line nationalists now find themselves isolated.

Members of the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) have openly criticized the most prominent group responsible for spreading Islamophobia. And the country’s officially sanctioned council of monks this week declared that the group — the Organization for the Protection of Race and Religion, known by the Burmese-language initials Ma Ba Tha — should be disbanded. Could Burma finally be squaring up to its bullying Buddhists?

Tensions between Buddhist and Muslim communities in Burma, formally known as Myanmar, have heightened since a military junta began handing over power to civilian leaders. In 2012, violent clashes in the west of the country saw scores killed and about 140,000 people displaced, mostly from the Muslim Rohingya community whose claims to citizenship in the country are angrily contested. As outbreaks of communal violence then spread to towns across the country, a contingent of Buddhist monks — claiming the country’s dominant faith was under threat from Islamic interlopers — used their sermons to call for a boycott of Muslim-owned businesses and to push legislation restricting religious conversion and inter-faith marriage. Some of those monks, most prominently the cherubic-faced Wirathu (who featured on a TIME cover story titled “The Face of Buddhist Terror”), formed Ma Ba Tha to organize this movement.

After setting up branches nationwide, the group had success in getting the military-backed administration of former President Thein Sein to pass four “race and religion” laws that clearly targeted Muslims (one law allowed the government to attempt to stem population growth; the nationalists’ hallmark scare story is that Muslims will eventually outnumber Buddhists in parts or the whole of the country). But when Ma Ba Tha threw its weight behind the then ruling party at elections last November, most people ignored its call to vote for candidates who “will not let our race and religion disappear.” After the elections, a senior Ma Ba Tha monk left the group, denouncing its political activities. Anti-Muslim sentiment has continued to simmer, however. The NLD and its leader, Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, have been accused of not standing up for the Muslim minority. The party purged Muslim candidates from its lists ahead of the polls and, since it came to power in late March, has been labeled “cowardly” for its approach to the Rohingya issue. In just the past few weeks, mobs in two separate areas of the country attacked mosques, setting one on fire.

But the tide appeared to turn earlier this month when Phyo Min Thein, the NLD’s new chief minister of Rangoon, was recorded during a trip to Singapore openly criticizing Ma Ba Tha. The group responded by calling for the official to be punished. (In the not too distant past, an NLD official wasjailed for “insulting religion” after he criticized the group.) But a senior NLD member said the party would not heed Ma Ba Tha’s demands. And when Phyo Min Thein, arrived at Rangoon’s airport last week, greeted by reporters and a handful of pro–Ma Ba Tha demonstrators, he refused to roll back on his statements. He had meant what he said: Ma Ba Tha was unnecessary, given the existence of the State Sangha Maha Nayaka Committee, a panel of 47 of Burma’s most senior monks that oversees the practice of Buddhism in the country. On Tuesday, the committee itself came to the same conclusion, throwing the future of the saffron-robed nationalists into doubt.

“It’s another sign that Ma Ba Tha has probably overreached its self-importance and overestimated its public appeal,” says David Mathieson, a senior researcher on Burma with Human Rights Watch. “Chastised by their weak showing of political clout around the election, the movement has tried to move back to some … nationalist and defender-of-the-faith credibility, but [they] are seriously hobbled by some of their prominent monk leaders and their shrilly racist and clearly unspiritual messages.”

Controversial Burmese monk Wirathu, center, attends a meeting of Buddhist monks at a monastery outside Rangoon, Burma, on June 27, 2013 (AFP/Getty Images)

Although Ma Ba Tha may be weakened, that doesn’t mean Buddhist nationalism is going away, Mathieson says. Tensions between Buddhist and Muslim communities stretch back to when Burma was under British colonial rule, and later were fanned by dictators seeking legitimacy. There’s no reason to think anti-Muslim sentiment has vanished overnight, in recent years there has been a drastic uptick in Islamophobic messages spread onsocial media, and by other means. Mathieson says that a network of schools giving nationalistic instruction to Buddhist children also warrants concern. The Dhamma School Foundation — which has links to 969, a movement focused on identifying Buddhist businesses, in contrast to Muslim-owned ones — is setting up schools all over the country. An even more virulent anti-Muslim movement also remains in the country’s western Arakan state, where local Buddhists continue to seek further marginalization of the Rohingya.

As for Ma Ba Tha’s front man, Wirathu has indicated that he won’t go quietly. In a Facebook post on Wednesday, he branded Suu Kyi, the country’s de facto leader, “a woman dictator,” according to Agence France-Presse. “I have seen that the ruling party and the new civilian government is stepping forward to target me as ‘enemy No. 1’ to destroy the whole Ma Ba Tha group to the end,” Wirathu wrote.

A Muslim man walks around the ruins of what was once his family's home after waves of violence led against Muslims by Buddhists destroyed and left many buildings in ruins during the riots of March 2013 in the Muslim quarter of the Burmese city of Mektila (Photo: Jonas Gratzer)

By Francis Wade
December 16, 2015

Sectarian hatred shown by Burma's Buddhist extremists toward the country's Muslim minority has become so pronounced that activists and politicians appear unable to stop it

The first text message came through several days after Myo had ended his workshop. “F—g kalar,” it read, using a slur that Burmese ultra-nationalists like to apply to Muslims or others of South Asian appearance. “Why don’t you stop your work?”

It was late July, exactly one year on from a deadly bout of communal violence between Buddhists and Muslims in the northern Burmese city of Mandalay. The young activist, whose name has been changed to protect his identity, had been working on a series of peace-building initiatives between the two communities, which had fissured in the wake of several waves of violence since 2012.

The workshop had gone relatively smoothly, or so he thought. A second message, the following day, caused even more alarm. “You want to die? Why are you pressuring our monks?” Myo grew increasingly agitated. As someone openly advocating interfaith harmony in a deeply divided society he was already too conspicuous for comfort.

He thought back on the workshop. Among the group were a number of progressive monks, and he was sure the tone of the meeting chimed with their own desires for religious accord. But there had been one nun present who had seemed resentful toward him. After a session on the Buddhist concept of “right speech” — defined by Buddha as words promoting peace and happiness — she fell quiet. He knew the nun had close ties to Wirathu, the abbot of a monastery in Mandalay, who is known not for his right speech but hate speech towards Muslims.

Myo told TIME that he decided to postpone future workshops. But later that day, a third message was received. “Who the hell are you to teach our monks? Motherf—r kalar, you’re going to die,” it warned. When a final message arrived on July 26, he decided to flee Mandalay and go into hiding. “We will see you tomorrow,” it read.

During its nearly half-century of military rule, the world tended to view Burma — formally known as Myanmar — as a black-and-white case of bad junta vs. good opposition, whose most visible luminaries were Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and many of the country’s saffron-robed monks. But the democratization process, supported by Western countries eager to draw resource-rich Burma out of China’s hands and into theirs, has brought into the open communal divides that had previously been hidden from view. Monks, whose leadership of the September 2007 uprising against military rule won them international admiration, have become among the most vocal proponents of a view of Islam as a foreign religion whose faithful posed an existential threat to Burmese Buddhism.

Particular venom has been reserved for the stateless Muslim Rohingya minority in western Burma, who were branded interlopers from Bangladesh and subjected to several campaigns of violence since 2012 that left hundreds dead and close to 150,000 in squalid displacement camps. Suu Kyi, a world-renowned icon of democracy, has been roundly criticized for failing to condemn the pogroms — fearful that to do so would be considered tantamount to support for an increasingly maligned Muslim community in Burma, and could affect support for her among a population that has shown an alarmingly anti-Muslim streak.

Inside Burma, the upshot has been broader disenfranchisement of Muslims, with no Muslim candidates standing for Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy, in its victorious showing at the November elections that were considered such a major step in bringing democracy to Burma. Outside of the country, particularly among Western backers of the transition, many have questioned exactly what brand of democracy Suu Kyi and her colleagues, who have been largely silent on the persecution of Muslims, have fought all these years for.

Around the same time that Myo began receiving threats, a fellow interfaith activist in Mandalay was being stalked by Burmese authorities. On a Tuesday in mid-July, the cell phone of Zaw Zaw Latt, 31, a member of the Mandalay Interfaith Social Volunteer Youth Group, began to ring. The caller identified himself as a policeman and told Zaw Zaw Latt to head to a café in downtown Mandalay at 8 p.m. that evening. Several officers from the Criminal Investigation Department were waiting, and started to question him about a photo on social media of him holding a rifle. The photo dated from 2013, when Zaw Zaw Latt had traveled as part of an outreach trip to camps for displaced persons rebel-held territory in Kachin state. While there, he posed with the firearm for show.

Unhappily for Zaw Zaw Latt, the photo was picked up two years later, and he was detained and later charged under a law banning association with “unlawful” groups. Less than a week later, two other colleagues, Pwint Phyu Latt and Zaw Win Bo, from the same Mandalay interfaith network that was set up in the wake of another round of anti-Muslim violence in March 2013, were arrested on spurious charges of illegal border crossing several months before, and sent to the same jail as Zaw Zaw Latt. Border officials had testified at one hearing that the two had been permitted to cross into India, but judges dismissed their testimony.

A relative of Zaw Zaw Latt explains to TIME that at every court appearance since his arrest in July, members of an ultra-nationalist monk-led movement known locally as Ma Ba Tha had been present. “They come and observe, and they put pressure on the mother of Pwint Phyu Latt and tell her he could be in prison for seven years,” she says of an encounter she had witnessed outside a court hearing in November.

By Rishi Iyengar
TIME
October 29, 2015

The long-persecuted ethnicity is on the verge of "mass annihilation," say experts, with new evidence indicating government complicity



Despite the U.S.-led rolling back of economic sanctions and internationally backed national elections taking place early next month, more than a million people in Burma are facing state-sponsored genocide, according to a new report.

The Rohingya Muslim community of the military-dominated Southeast Asian nation, which is now officially known as Myanmar, has been systematically persecuted and expunged from the national narrative — often at the behest of powerful extremist groups from the country’s majority Buddhist population and even government authorities — to the point where complete extermination is a possibility, according to a damning new study by the International State Crime Initiative (ISCI) at the Queen Mary University of London.

“The Rohingya face the final stages of genocide,” concludes the report.

ISCI uses noted genocide expert Daniel Feierstein’s framework of the six stages of genocide, outlined in his 2014 book Genocide as Social Practice, as a lens through which to view Burma. Through interviews with stakeholders on both sides of what it describes as ethnic cleansing, as well as media reports and leaked government documents, the report enumerates how the Rohingya have undergone the first four stages — stigmatization and dehumanization; harassment, violence and terror; isolation and segregation; systematic weakening — and are on the verge of “mass annihilation.” The sixth stage, which involves the “removal of the victim group from collective history,” is already under way in many respects, the report says.

Stricken from Burma’s 135 officially recognized ethnicities in 1982, the Rohingya have undergone decades of discrimination and disenfranchisement, albeit never to the degree they currently face. The Burmese government’s official position is that the Rohingya are interlopers from neighboring Bangladesh, despite many having lived in the country for generations, and it refuses to even acknowledge their collective name, preferring the loaded term “Bengali.” The report documents a systematic deterioration of the Rohingya’s situation since communal violence broke out in June 2012 in Burma’s Rakhine (formerly Arakan) state.

Although the Burmese government has painted the strife — which saw hundreds of people, mainly Muslims, slaughtered during two main waves of violence that June and October — as a spontaneous outbreak of long-mounting religious tensions following the reported rape of a Buddhist woman, the ISCI report presents compelling evidence that the attacks were premeditated and possibly even organized by local authorities.

Interviews with some of the perpetrators — none of whom have been prosecuted because of a supposed lack of concrete evidence — reveal that they were bused into Rakhine state’s capital city Sittwe from nearby villages, provided two free meals a day and told it was their “duty as Rakhine to participate in an attack on the Muslim population.”

There are also strong indications that the government not only allowed the violence to take place unabated for almost a week, but that police, military and other state security forces participated in the attacks themselves, the report says.

Since then, close to 140,000 Rohingya have been sequestered in squalid camps outside the state’s capital, heavily guarded and prevented from leaving by security forces. The 4,500 that remain in Sittwe reside in a run-down ghetto with similar restrictions on movement. A majority of the Rohingya, numbering about 800,000, are spread out across two townships in northern Rakhine state — another region completely blocked off from the outside world by the military.

A lot of the food rations sent by international aid organizations never make it to the Rohingya camps, and denial of access to adequate health care have turned them into hotbeds for malnutrition and disease. As a result of the apartheid-like conditions, the inhabitants of these camps are also largely prevented from receiving an education and earning any sort of livelihood.

“The abuses that the Rohingya are experiencing are at a level and scale that we have not seen elsewhere in Southeast Asia,” Matthew Smith, the founder and executive director of Bangkok-based nonprofit Fortify Rights, tells TIME. The human-rights organization has been documenting abuses in Burma, and Smith echoes the assertion that there is a strong reason to believe state-enabled ethnic cleansing is taking place in the country.

“The Rohingya don’t have to be annihilated for someone to be held responsible for the crime of genocide,” he says. “They [Burmese authorities] are creating conditions of life for over a million people that are designed to be destructive.”

Children rest at a refugee camp in Bayeun, outside of Langsa, Indonesia, May 20. They were among the 25,000-plus Rohingya Muslim migrants who have fled reported persecution in Burma and Bangladesh this year by crossing the Indian Ocean in search of refugee status in Indonesia and Malaysia. (Photo: JAMES NACHTWEY)

There are more than just physical aspects to the Rohingya’s plight — they have been stripped of their citizenship, with their children no longer being issued birth certificates and laws restricting their marriage and birth rate. The government also excluded the community from the 2014 census unless they registered as “Bengali.”

They have also been denied the right to participate in the upcoming Nov. 8general elections, a complete reversal from the last election in 2010 when Rohingya voted in large numbers and some were elected to the legislature, as the military-backed government yoked their animosity to the Rakhine to see of the challenge of ethnic parties aligned with the latter.

No political party has countered the Islamophobic national narrative, with even the liberal National League for Democracy (NLD) of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi going to the polls without a single Muslim candidate, and the Rohingya’s deplorable situation will likely endure no matter the election’s result.

“There will be no change for the Rohingya,” says Shwe Maung, a Rohingya lawmaker from northern Rakhine state who has been barred from re-election. “The government is totally denying our community, totally denying our ethnicity,” he tells TIME. “Whatever is happening is with the ultimate objective of genocide or cleansing, which is to finish these people … and to drive them out.”

In the absence of a light at the end of the tunnel, there is a growing likelihood that Rohingya will take to the seas en masse in order to flee their country — like thousands did earlier this year — in the coming months, falling pray to people-smugglers with often deadly consequences.

“Many Rohingya tell us that their options are to stay in Rakhine state and face death or flee the country,” Smith says. “Many of them know that attempting to flee the country is in itself life-threatening, and they’re willing to take those risks because the situation in Rakhine state is as bad as it is.”

The previous exodus, which reached its height this June, was not only enabled and encouraged but also enforced by government authorities, interviews conducted by al-Jazeera for its new documentary Genocide Agenda reveal.

“They said, ‘You are Muslim and you are not allowed to live in Rakhine state. Get on the boat and flee wherever you want,’” an elderly Rohingya man says, recounting the presence of members of Burma’s security forces, army and police who forced them into the vessels. When his elder brother tried to resist, Rakhine Buddhists hacked him to death with a sword on the spot, he tells al-Jazeera before breaking down in tears.

The documentary, released on Monday, is the culmination of a yearlong investigation by al-Jazeera and contains stark evidence of government intent to, at the very least, promote an anti-Muslim sentiment among the Burmese population. Classified government documents obtained by the news channel’s investigative unit warn of “countrywide communal violence between Muslims and Burmans” being planned at a mosque in Burma’s capital, Rangoon, (violence that ultimately did not take place), and a presentation given to new army recruits contains sections on the “Fear of Extinction of Race” detailing how “Bengali Muslims … infiltrate the people to propagate the religion” and aim to increase their population and wipe out the Burmese Buddhists.

The film’s findings, as well as Fortify Rights’ research, were also the subject of an eight-month analysis by the Lowenstein Clinic at Yale Law School. The clinic examined the Rohingya’s circumstances according to the 1948 International Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide and precedents set by international law, and concluded that “strong evidence” exists to substantiate the claim that genocide is being carried out in Burma with intent to destroy the Rohingya.

The clinic’s report, released on Thursday, calls for a commission of inquiry by the U.N. Human Rights Council to conduct an “urgent, comprehensive and independent investigation” into alleged genocidal acts perpetrated against the Rohingya.

“The international community needs to understand in a deeper way, in a clearer way, that the abuses being perpetrated against the Rohingya are widespread, systematic and a matter of state policy,” Smith tells TIME. “The international community needs to take action. These abuses have been going on for decades.”

Neither TIME nor al-Jazeera was able to obtain a response to the allegations from the Burmese government despite repeated attempts, though Deputy Information Minister Ye Htut told us last year: “We never pay attention to organizations such as Fortify Rights, which are openly lobby groups for the Bengalis.”

Such attitudes do not bode well for the Rohingya, whose plight is grimly summed up by a woman living in one of the camps interviewed by ISCI.

“If the international community can’t help us, please drop a bomb on us and kill all of us,” she says.





Burmese pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi smiles as she greets her supporters during her campaign in her constituency of Kawhmu township, outside Rangoon, on Sept. 21, 2015 (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun/Reuters)

By Charlie Campbell
TIME
October 3, 2015

The Southeast Asian nation hopes to finally throw off the shackles of military dictatorship

Early next month Burma goes to the polls for what are shaping up to be its freest general elections for 25 years. The National League for Democracy (NLD) party of former political prisoner Aung San Suu Kyi, is poised to win a sizeable chunk of the 664 legislative seats. That would be a watershed moment for the former pariah nation, which has opened up politically and economically since democratic reforms were introduced three years ago.

However, significant problems remain. Suu Kyi, who is already a legislator, remains barred from becoming President, owing to her having married a Briton and having two sons who are U.K. citizens. These constitutional provisions were introduced by the former junta specifically to scupper the democracy icon’s political aspirations.

On Tuesday, the NLD announced it had filed a complaint against the country’s Union Election Commission regarding error-strewn voter lists, alleged defamation against Suu Kyi and perceived bias in favor of the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).

All this will worry Washington. U.S. President Barack Obama has visitedBurma twice in the past three years, championing the democratic transition and rolling back economic sanctions. This is not simply altruism: a free, prosperous Burma (officially now known as Myanmar) would prove a boon to his administration’s much-touted “rebalancing” to Asia. Conversely, any electoral skulduggery would prove embarrassing.

Here are seven factors that may prove decisive as the nation heads to the ballot box on Nov. 8.

1. NLD fumbling
On May 27, 1990, two years after mass student-led democracy protests shook the nation, largely free and fair polls saw the NLD secure 60% of the popular vote and 80% of parliamentary seats (392 out of 485). But the military refused to honor the result and Burma returned to suffocating dictatorship. In the interim, Suu Kyi spent 15 years under house arrest. The euphoria that accompanied the Nobel Laureate’s release and subsequent election to parliament in April 2012 by-elections, during which the NLD won 43 out of 45 contested seats, raised hopes that the party would romp home if the 2015 polls were similarly unfettered.

However, the mood has soured markedly since then. A controversial party list saw some potential big name candidates — including celebrated former political prisoners — shunned, and not a single Muslim among the 1,090 names, a testament to the party’s cowing to an increasingly vocal, hard-line Buddhist clique. Several senior party members have been expelled for questioning these decisions, prompting accusations of a lack of democracy within a pro-democracy party. Last week, the NLD leadership reportedlybanned candidates from speaking to the media for three weeks. And even though Suu Kyi remains barred from the presidency, no alternative candidate has been proffered for the top job. “You are not voting for individuals,” Suu Kyi told supporters last month. “You are voting for change.” An election manifesto has finally been published but is sparse on how exactly this change is to be achieved.

2. USDP rumblings
Given the abuses suffered during more than half a century of dictatorship, few expected the USDP, staffed by former junta generals, to remain a political force once Burma made the transition to democracy. However, the party has recast itself as a bulwark against largely chimerical Islamic fundamentalism, aligning itself with prominent figures in the right-wing Buddhist clergy, and is far from spent.

At the same time, the party remains riven between the old and new guard, as illustrated by last month’s dramatic purge of Lower House Speaker Shwe Mann, the party chair and formerly No. 3–ranked junta general. Shwe Mann apparently paid a price for conciliatory overtures to Suu Kyi, which angered many conservative and military elements within his party.

Meanwhile, other key figures have also departed, including popular President’s Office Minister Aung Min, the government’s chief negotiator with ethnic armed groups, who is widely seen as a moderating force. Along with Soe Thein, an influential former Minister for Industry, Aung Min quitthe USDP to run as an independent after being refused a safe seat.

3. Ma Ba Tha
Radical Buddhist nationalism is increasingly defining postreform Burma. The earlier 969 movement to boycott Muslim businesses and services has grown into the Association for the Protection of Race and Religion, commonly known by its Burmese acronym Ma Ba Tha. It crusades for Buddhist supremacy and Buddhist-Muslim apartheid. “It’s led by some of the biggest abbots in the country,” says David Mathieson, senior researcher on Burma for Human Rights Watch.

Four pieces of highly discriminatory legislation were passed in July, forbidding interfaith marriages, prohibiting Buddhist women (but not men) from changing their religion, restricting the number of children designated groups can bear, and outlawing polygamy. “They basically want to control women’s bodies,” says Mathieson.

Ma Ba Tha is growing increasingly influential, claiming (although the facts are widely disputed) to have 250 chapters and 10 million members around the country. Ma Ba Tha remains close to the UDSP — party officials are not shy about donating large sums to the cause — and has aimed barbs at the NLD. Cognizant of the group’s swelling influence, even Suu Kyi has refused to outright condemn its unashamedly bigoted agenda.

4. Rohingya genocide
The plight of Burma’s million-strong Rohingya Muslim minority underscores the limits of reform. Deemed “one of the world’s most persecuted peoples” by the U.N., around 140,000 Rohingya currently fester in squalid displacement camps in western Arakan state after pogroms began flaring up in May 2012. Deprived of adequate food, shelter and medical supplies, thousands have attempted to flee in rickety boats, often cast adrift by people-smugglers.

During the last widely condemned elections in 2010, the central government cynically bestowed voting rights on the Rohingya, who expressed support for the USDP. But they only did this for the politically expedient goal of seeing off the challenge of the ethnic Rakhine parties, the Rohingya’s longtime foe. This even saw some Rohingya MPs in parliament.

This year, those voting rights have been stripped away and no Rohingya have been allowed to register as candidates. This has led to an “unparalleled tide of despair,” says Matthew Smith, founder of the Fortify Rights NGO, who has just returned from three weeks documenting the human-rights situation in Rakhine state. “People are planning to take to the seas again.” Sadly, the partly U.S.-funded Union Election Commission has not overturned the Rohingya’s state-level systematic disenfranchisement.

5. Ethnic unease
Burma boasts 135 official ethnicities — although the Rohingya were axed from this list in 1982, depriving them of even that bare minimum of recognition.

The nation’s seven main ethnic groups boast namesake states that share frontiers with Bangladesh, India, China, Laos and Thailand. Virtually since independence in 1948, these minorities — currently comprising a third of Burma’s 51 million population — have complained of persecution by the central government, which is dominated by the Bamar ethnic group. Aligned rebel militias have waged the world’s longest running civil war to seek greater autonomy. The Burmese military, in turn, has exploited the specter of Balkanization to maintain its grip on power.

Clashes continue unabated despite recent peace talks, particularly in Kachin and Shan states by the Sino-Burmese border. As a result, more than 300,000 people have been displaced since President Thein Sein took power and reforms began. This is in addition to the 140,000 refugees that languish in nine main camps across the Thai border, many having been there since the 1980s.

Sporadic violence entails the likely suspension of voting in constituencies where security cannot be guaranteed. Already marginalized communities thus feel excluded from the democratic transition. Frustration is building. “The local populations have more animosity towards the Tatmadaw [Burmese armed forces] now than we’ve seen in a very long time,” says Smith, “Elections are only going to increase tensions.”

At the same time, ethnic parties maintain largely cohesive support in their home states, and could team up to become a political force within the new parliament, perhaps striking a deal with the NLD, with which they share the goal of a federal state with power devolved to the regions. This would certainly worry military figures, who profit from exploiting jade, teak and other natural resources found in regional areas. But then it is the military that ultimately decides whether peace deals remain intact, and votes go ahead.

6. Economic faltering
Burma’s return to the international fold saw a rash of Western businesses jostling to exploit the nation’s cheap workforce, abundant natural resources and enviable geographical position between regional superpowers India and China. Although there have been certain cosmetic changes, such as shiny new cars on the streets of Rangoon, the rolling back of economic sanctions has not heralded the kind of resurgence many expected.

Professor Sean Turnell, an expert on Burmese economics at Australia’s Macquarie University, says the stalling was due to pre-election politicking and the lobbying of powerful regime cronies opposed to increased competition. This “was all made manifest by the surprising number of significant economic bills left ‘unpassed’ when the parliament was closed down at the end of August,” says Turnell, citing Burma’s “antediluvian” system of bank regulation and Company Law that dates back to a Colonial Act of 1914. Tellingly, though, while the government lacked the energy to push much-needed economic legislation, “it did find time to pass all four discriminatory and divisive religious laws,” adds Turnell.

7. A jittery military
The hope that November’s elections will be free and fair is curtailed by the constitutional stipulation that 25% of seats remain reserved for armed-forces personnel, giving the powerful military an effective veto over constitutional amendments, which require over 75% of lawmakers to pass. “They’ve already stuffed 25% of the ballots,” says Mathieson. Shwe Mann’s support for changing this clause most likely lay behind his purge, say observers, who remain divided on how much influence former junta supremo Senior General Than Shwe still wields in retirement. Certainly, the generals are not satisfied to be confined to the barracks, and should the ballot box throw up an unpalatable result, they may be spurred to intervene once again. Should the NLD perform well, another coup cannot be ruled out.

Rohingya Exodus