Latest Highlight


Rohingya refugees stand in an open area during heavy rain as they are held by the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) after crossing the border, in Teknaf, Bangladesh on Aug. 31. (Photo: Mohammad Ponir Hossain / Reuters)

By Simon Adams
November 25, 2017

Last Wednesday an international court found Ratko Mladić, the notorious “butcher of Bosnia,” guilty of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. As Commander of the Bosnian Serb Army during the 1992-1995 Bosnian war, Mladić’s troops forced thousands of civilians to flee from “ethnic cleansing” – a cruel euphemism that will forever be associated with the wars in the former Yugoslavia. At the time Mladić appeared all-powerful and untouchable, presiding over the genocide at Srebrenica and wantonly committing war crimes. He will now die in prison.

It took decades for international justice to catch up with Mladić. And while the verdict is a welcome warning to other perpetrators, it also poses the uncomfortable question of whether the international community is doing enough to hold those responsible for atrocities today accountable for their crimes? 

Last month, at a meeting held at the United Nations in New York, I argued that “democracy in Myanmar cannot be built on the bones of the Rohingya.” Sitting between the former Foreign Minister of Bangladesh and the UN Special Advisor on the Prevention of Genocide, those were my concluding remarks regarding the quickest and most brutal episode of ethnic cleansing of our times. They were made to a room crowded with diplomats, UN bureaucrats and human rights activists who were gathered because since 25 August more than 622,000 Rohingya have crossed the border from Myanmar (Burma) into Bangladesh. 

The Rohingya are fleeing so-called “clearance operations” carried out by the Myanmar military in Rakhine State, including widespread killings, rape, and the burning of more than 280 villages. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has described these attacks as “a textbook example of ethnic cleansing.” 

The Rohingya, a distinct Muslim ethnic group in an overwhelmingly Buddhist country, have been persecuted for generations. Myanmar’s 1982 Citizenship Law does not recognize the estimated 1 million Rohingya as one of the country’s “national races,” rendering them stateless. Other discriminatory laws restrict their freedom of movement and access to employment and education. In short, the conditions under which the Rohingya minority live in Myanmar constitute a uniquely Southeast Asian form of apartheid.

The military’s operations began as collective punishment for a coordinated attack on police and army barracks by Rohingya militants armed mainly with knives. One week later, the Commander of Myanmar’s military, General Min Aung Hlaing, described the “Bengali problem” (he refuses to use the term Rohingya) as an “unfinished job” that previous governments had failed to complete. Atrocities committed against the Rohingya population since then constitute crimes against humanity under international law. They may ultimately prove to be genocidal in intent. 

The response of the UN Security Council has been tepid at best. It took ten weeks for the Council just to issue a Presidential statement condemning the atrocities. The reason for the delay is that China is a powerful ally of the Generals who still dominate Myanmar. China is also Myanmar’s largest supplier of arms. But facing global outrage, China eventually agreed to a unanimous Presidential statement rather than a legally-binding resolution. Words, but no action.

Despite the Security Council’s inertia, the flow of Rohingya refugees has ebbed. This is not because atrocities were halted, but because Myanmar’s military has largely finished its job. Possibly as much as 80% of the Rohingya population have fled. And no one knows how many more are dead or displaced inside Myanmar. Unfinished business, indeed.

My comment at the UN regarding the bones of the Rohingya was a response to those who see these atrocities as unconscionable, but ultimately, as a lesser priority than the political preservation of Myanmar’s frail democracy under Aung San Suu Kyi. The greatest threat to Myanmar’s democracy today, however, is the impunity of its Generals. What kind of a country will Myanmar be if they are allowed to successfully impose their scorched earth policy on Rakhine State? They will certainly have no incentive to respect the human rights of the other 135 ethnic groups who live within Myanmar’s borders. 

But there is an alternative. First, the international community should suspend all bilateral ties with Myanmar’s military. All senior officers with command responsibility for ethnic cleansing should also face targeted sanctions. And all international trade, aid and investment programs in Rakhine State should be scrupulously reviewed. The local authorities and the Myanmar military must not be allowed to profit from the seizure of Rohingya crops, livestock and land. 

The United States, Canada, European Union and others have already imposed some of these measures, but all UN member states should do so. 

Secondly, influential international friends of Aung San Suu Kyi need to continue to lobby her to implement the recommendations of the Rakhine Commission. Led by Kofi Annan, the Commission has offered practical suggestions to end the persecution of the Rohingya and ease conflict in Rakhine. Not by coincidence, its final report was released on 24 August, the day before the current conflagration began. Expeditiously implementing the Commission’s recommendations would weaken those inside Myanmar’s military who still prefer to conduct domestic policy with bayonets and bullets.

Finally, we need to recognize that the international community has utterly failed the Rohingya. Despite years of warnings about the risk of mass atrocities, including by my own organization, a number of governments took refuge in the idea that quiet diplomacy – including acquiescing to Myanmar’s insistence on not publicly mentioning the Rohingya – would create space for gentle reform. Instead it had the reverse affect, encouraging those generals who desired a final solution in Rakhine State and wanted to test the limits of Aung San Suu Kyi’s moral authority. 

Unlike Ratko Mladić’s victims, Rohingya refugees should not have to wait two decades for justice. It is time to amplify the voices of those calling for the Myanmar authorities to uphold their responsibility to protect the Rohingya. This will require more than hand wringing. It will necessitate holding General Min Aung Hlaing and all those responsible for ethnic cleansing in Myanmar accountable for their actions. What is at stake is not just the fate of the Rohingya, but the very idea of an international community that is prepared to defend universal rights.

Simon Adams is Executive Director of Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect.



Dear Mr Secretary General,

I am writing to you to express my deep concern over the fate of the Rohingya people of Myanmar. I am certain you are familiar with their extremely precarious situation, as we have seen them teetering on the edge of genocide since at least 2012. Yet what prompts me to write this letter is the latest news coming out of Myanmar just in the last few days: a series of attacks against border guard outposts killed 9 Burmese policemen just over a week ago, the Rohingya were quickly deemed responsible, and the police and army in the local state of Rakhine/Arakan have already carried out over 100 indiscriminate extra-judicial killings of dozens of Rohingya - including old men, women and children. 

The fear on the ground is that the violence may now escalate to at least the level of violence of 2012 or 2013, when dozens were killed, over 100,000 were displaced to internal camps and many more Rohingya were driven out of the country altogether, triggering the South East Asia Migration Crisis which culminated in the spring of last year. And that may be the optimistic scenario. This new upsurge of violence may ultimately prove to be the final trigger to outright genocide that the UN and many NGO observers have been dreading.

What makes the situation today the most perilous it has ever been is the fact that in this crisis the Rohingya are likely to be targeted by all parts of Burmese society. Historically, the dark-skinned, Muslim minority had been chosen as the favourite ‘enemy within’ of the succession of military regimes that governed Burma/Myanmar. Whenever these governments needed to invoke some ‘dark forces’ that undermined the success of their ‘vision’ for the country, they scape-goated the country’s Muslims, particularly the Rohingya. Whenever they needed to distract attention from other national issues, some conflict with the Rohingya would suddenly materialise. 

Yet the violence of 2012-2013 had not been initiated by the federal state. Or indeed the local state. The decades of anti-Rohingya propaganda have been absorbed by the political culture of the country, and now the biggest threat to the Rohingya is actually their ethnic Rakhine Buddhist neighbours, in their native state of Rakhine/Arakan. Civil society groups, Rakhine nationalist political parties, even prominent groups of Buddhist monks are the perpetrators of dehumanising propaganda and incitement to anti-Rohingya violence. Indeed, in the last few years, the organs of the state have either been passive or have helped calm tensions down when they flared. 

But now these attacks are driven by the law enforcement agencies of the local state. And the civil society groups that have carried out most of the attacks in the recent years are merely waiting their turn. The floodgates have not been opened just yet: but they are about to burst through. 

The only thing that can stop the spiralling levels of violence from escalating into a full blown latter-day Rwanda scenario would be the intervention of the federal government of Aung San Suu Kyi to pacify Rakhine/Arakan and impose the rule of law. But as of yet, the federal government is making no haste to intervene, and Ms Suu Kyi does not seem to be moved by the gravity of the situation.

Fortunately, the situation is not beyond all hope. Ms Suu Kyi is known to be sensitive to international opinion, and indeed much of her political capital comes from the favourable view the West has had of her as a democracy campaigner for her country. We do have leverage to lean on her to confront this issue as a matter of urgency, and if we do, we know she has the political power and capital as the first democratic leader of her country in half a century to carry through what needs to be done.

You are in a uniquely privileged position to help build the international pressure needed to move Ms Suu Kyi and her government to suppress the recent upsurge in violence before things get completely out of control. I urge you to take charge of this issue and help prevent yet another international humanitarian catastrophe. I realise that in the current news media cycle it can be difficult to get such a message through: between Trump, Brexit and Aleppo we barely have the energy to process everything else that is happening in the world today. But if we do not do something about the situation of the Rohingya as a matter of urgency, the issue will come back to haunt us as an even greater calamity - and one which we could have been able to prevent.

Should you need any help or support in this, from up-to-date information to contacts with on-the-ground sources, to contacts within the relevant UN and non-governmental agencies, I am at your service. Please do not hesitate to get back in touch.

Yours sincerely,

Dr Azeem Ibrahim

This post originally appeared here.

Rohingya Muslims, fled from violence over Muslims in Myanmar take shelter at Leda unregistered Rohingya camp in Teknaf, Bangladesh on December 05, 2016. (Photo: ANADOLU AGENCY VIA GETTY IMAGES)

By Nick Robins-Early
December 15, 2016

Satellite images show at least 1,500 buildings burned, amid allegations of violent attacks and sexual assault.

Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslims have faced a new wave of violence in recent months, adding to the minority group’s status as one of the world’s most persecuted peoples. Newly released satellite images show that at least 1,500 buildings in Rohingya villages have been burned since early October, according to a Human Rights Watch report released on Wednesday.

The rights group’s report places the blame for the arson attacks with Myanmar’s army, which for decades has carried out alleged human rights abuses against the Rohingya under the pretense of fighting Islamist insurgents. Along with regime attacks, Myanmar’s more than 1 million Rohingya are the subject of widespread discrimination from much of the country’s Buddhist population that refuses to view them as a distinct ethnic group. 

The Rohingya are also at the center of an enormous refugee crisis, with an estimated 200,000 living in camps in neighboring Bangladesh: Thousands more are attempting to seek safety in countries across the region. A surge in violence in 2012 in Myanmar’s western Rakhine state destroyed numerous Rohingya homes. At least 100,000 Rohingya were relocated to internment camps where their movements are restricted and they often lack access to basic necessities and health services.



The latest spate of attacks against the Rohingya come after police in Myanmar say nine of their officers were killed in an attack in Rakhine on Oct. 9, which they blame on Rohingya militancy. In response, Myanmar’s army has carried out what rights groups allege is a systematic and indiscriminate campaign against Rohingya villages in the state.

Rohingya villagers told rights groups that the army has used helicopter gunships to fire on civilians. They also say soldiers have set fire to their homes. Multiple Rohingya women also reported to Reuters in late October that soldiers raped or sexually assaulted dozens of villagers at gunpoint during the military advance. Thousands of Rohingya who attempted to flee to Bangladesh in recent months have been turned back, according to Amnesty International.

Rohingya Muslims cry as Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) catch them in a check post in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, November 21, 2016. (Photo: MOHAMMAD PONIR HOSSAIN/REUTERS)

Police and officials in Rakhine have dismissed the allegations of army abuses against the Rohingya. One member of parliament from the state told the BBC that Rohingya women were too “dirty” for soldiers to rape, and blamed the arson attacks on Rohingya militants burning down their own community’s homes. The army blocks media access into Rakhine state, making it extremely difficult for journalists and rights groups to get reports from the ground.

The leader of Myanmar’s government, nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, has remained largely silent on the army’s attacks. Although she is the de facto head of government after the country ended decades of military rule earlier this year, the army still retains considerable power. Aung San Suu Kyi’s reticence to place blame on the military or condemn the attacks on Rohingya has led to widespread criticism from rights groups and observers who hoped that she would address the country’s longstanding human rights violations.



Dear Mr Secretary General,

I am writing to you to express my deep concern over the fate of the Rohingya people of Myanmar. I am certain you are familiar with their extremely precarious situation, as we have seen them teetering on the edge of genocide since at least 2012. Yet what prompts me to write this letter is the latest news coming out of Myanmar just in the last few days: a series of attacks against border guard outposts killed 9 Burmese policemen just over a week ago, the Rohingya were quickly deemed responsible, and the police and army in the local state of Rakhine/Arakan have already carried out over 100 indiscriminate extra-judicial killings of dozens of Rohingya - including old men, women and children. 

The fear on the ground is that the violence may now escalate to at least the level of violence of 2012 or 2013, when dozens were killed, over 100,000 were displaced to internal camps and many more Rohingya were driven out of the country altogether, triggering the South East Asia Migration Crisis which culminated in the spring of last year. And that may be the optimistic scenario. This new upsurge of violence may ultimately prove to be the final trigger to outright genocide that the UN and many NGO observers have been dreading.

What makes the situation today the most perilous it has ever been is the fact that in this crisis the Rohingya are likely to be targeted by all parts of Burmese society. Historically, the dark-skinned, Muslim minority had been chosen as the favourite ‘enemy within’ of the succession of military regimes that governed Burma/Myanmar. Whenever these governments needed to invoke some ‘dark forces’ that undermined the success of their ‘vision’ for the country, they scape-goated the country’s Muslims, particularly the Rohingya. Whenever they needed to distract attention from other national issues, some conflict with the Rohingya would suddenly materialise. 

Yet the violence of 2012-2013 had not been initiated by the federal state. Or indeed the local state. The decades of anti-Rohingya propaganda have been absorbed by the political culture of the country, and now the biggest threat to the Rohingya is actually their ethnic Rakhine Buddhist neighbours, in their native state of Rakhine/Arakan. Civil society groups, Rakhine nationalist political parties, even prominent groups of Buddhist monks are the perpetrators of dehumanising propaganda and incitement to anti-Rohingya violence. Indeed, in the last few years, the organs of the state have either been passive or have helped calm tensions down when they flared. 

But now these attacks are driven by the law enforcement agencies of the local state. And the civil society groups that have carried out most of the attacks in the recent years are merely waiting their turn. The floodgates have not been opened just yet: but they are about to burst through. 

The only thing that can stop the spiralling levels of violence from escalating into a full blown latter-day Rwanda scenario would be the intervention of the federal government of Aung San Suu Kyi to pacify Rakhine/Arakan and impose the rule of law. But as of yet, the federal government is making no haste to intervene, and Ms Suu Kyi does not seem to be moved by the gravity of the situation.

Fortunately, the situation is not beyond all hope. Ms Suu Kyi is known to be sensitive to international opinion, and indeed much of her political capital comes from the favourable view the West has had of her as a democracy campaigner for her country. We do have leverage to lean on her to confront this issue as a matter of urgency, and if we do, we know she has the political power and capital as the first democratic leader of her country in half a century to carry through what needs to be done.

You are in a uniquely privileged position to help build the international pressure needed to move Ms Suu Kyi and her government to suppress the recent upsurge in violence before things get completely out of control. I urge you to take charge of this issue and help prevent yet another international humanitarian catastrophe. I realise that in the current news media cycle it can be difficult to get such a message through: between Trump, Brexit and Aleppo we barely have the energy to process everything else that is happening in the world today. But if we do not do something about the situation of the Rohingya as a matter of urgency, the issue will come back to haunt us as an even greater calamity - and one which we could have been able to prevent.

Should you need any help or support in this, from up-to-date information to contacts with on-the-ground sources, to contacts within the relevant UN and non-governmental agencies, I am at your service. Please do not hesitate to get back in touch.

Yours sincerely,


Dr Azeem Ibrahim

This letter was originally published on Huffington Post.



By Dr Azeem Ibrahim
October 12, 2016

I have written numerous newspaper pieces on the fate of the Rohingya in recent years, and even published a book on this, “the most oppressed people in the world”, this summer. Yet for all they have endured for the last decades, and especially in the last few years, the scariest part of their lives is not that as many as half of them have been displaced from Myanmar, the country of their birth, and many of the rest are now in internally displaced people’s camps inside the country, in appalling conditions. The scariest part, rather, is what might happen next. 

With these people so widely reviled by the Buddhist nationalists in their home state of Rakhine/Arakan and throughout the Union of Myanmar, and with them currently being in such precarious conditions, they are teetering on the edge of outright genocide. They have been ever since the outbursts of communal violence in 2012 and 2013 which have caused to largest amount of damage to their communities and triggered the regional South East Asian Migration Crisis last year. And ever since, we have been dreading what might happen if some random event triggers a new wave of violence from their Rakhine neighbours, or indeed, from the police and security agencies of the state. 

Such a trigger may have just been pulled. Nine police officers were killed and several others injured in attacks on border guard posts near the border with Bangladesh on Sunday, 9 October. And the Rohingya were collectively declared guilty of the attacks, despite there being no evidence that the attackers were, in fact Rohingya. Nevermind which individuals, Rohingya or otherwise, might have been the actual perpetrators. The collective punishment heaped on the Rohingya by state institutions such as the police and army was swift. Twenty-four innocent Rohingya were killed just on Monday, and the numbers seem to be escalating as we speak.

What is worse, though these extra-judicial killings have been carried out by local state agencies, the federal forces of the government of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi are not intervening to stop them and re-establish the rule of law. And if the Rohingya finally give up hope that anyone else might stand up to defend them, they may well end up taking their defence in their own hands. At which point, this can only escalate into an orgy of violence at least as bad as 2012, and perhaps even the outbreak of all-out inter-communal fighting. Not that the Rohingya have the resources to fight such a fight - they will be slaughtered en masse.



Ever since Aung San Suu Kyi came to power late last year, there has been at least some hope that the country can start making some progress on the situation of the Rohingya. Indeed, her government has been successfully pressured by the international community to establish a Commission for this purpose headed by former UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan. Just in the last couple of months I have written with cautious optimism that things finally looked like they might be moving in the right direction. But now the situation has changed completely - we now look to back on the precipice, and the trigger may have just been pulled. 

There is no time to lose! We cannot afford to dither. Our leaders must force the federal government of Myanmar to intervene and re-establish order now! Before we have another Rwanda on our hands. And we must make direct contact with our elected representatives to make them aware of the situation and urge them to action. Aung San Suu Kyi must be stirred into action, and if she is not willing, or able, to intervene swiftly, then it is time to deploy UN peacekeepers with or without her consent. If we do not, this will not be just on her. This will be on us too!

Dr Azeem Ibrahim is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Policy and author of “The Rohingyas: Inside Myanmar’s Hidden Genocide“ (Hurst Publishers & Oxford University Press).

By Abdul Malik Mujahid
August 27, 2016

Rights Groups Doubt that Systemic Discrimination against Rohingya Will Be Resolved

As manifested in the United States, race and religion are extremely delicate topics for politicians to explore. And eradicating widespread endemic prejudices against certain racial and religious groups is a notoriously explosive proposition. However, that is exactly what is required in Burma, where a slow-burning genocide against the Rohingya people is becoming an urgent priority for the international community. On Aug. 23 2016 Burma’s Nobel Peace Laureate and de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi announced the establishment of a 9-member Advisory Commission on Rakhine State, where the Rohingya primarily live, as “a national initiative to resolve protracted issues in the region”. This sounds, at first blush, like a promising step — considering that the peaceful Rohingya were not invited to the Norway peace conference with other ethnic organizations (EAOs).

Burma Task Force welcomes Ms. Suu Kyi’s belated response to the persecution of Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine State and the conditions of poverty and oppression that instigated it. But we are extremely troubled by signs that this Commission has already been compromised by inclusion of staunch defenders of the previous military regime as well as deniers of mass atrocity crimes. The inclusion of former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan cannot restore the balance to this advisory commission — especially since Secretary Annan himself has expressed regret at not doing a better job to handle the Rwandan genocide of 1994. We can pray that he will apply the lessons he learned from Rwanda throughout his work on this Commission, but I fear his voice may be drowned out by the extremist Buddhist nationalists who have expressed quite hostile views of the Rohingya. Most importantly, no Rohingya representatives have been included! I am profoundly dismayed by Ms Suu Kyi’s failure to appoint a single Rohingya leader to a commission tasked to discuss their fate. What could be more damning?

While the presence of two Christians on the Commission will hopefully add a breath of fresh interfaith air, two Rakhine members — namely U Win Mra (Chair of the National Human Rights Commission) and Saw Khin Tint (Chairperson, Rakhine Literature and Culture Association and Vice-Chairperson of the Rakhine Women’s Association) have engaged in denial of mass atrocity crimes committed by the extremist Buddhist nationalists. It’s easy to doubt the comment one of the newly appointed Commission members, Aye Lwin, made to the Democratic Voice of Burma: “This is very impartial third-party intervention.”

An ethnic Rakhine, Win Mra is the chair of the Myanmar Human Rights Commission (MHRC), an organization whose name could not be more misleading. The MHRC officially refuses to accept or utter the name of the Rohingya in blatant disregard for the international norm that any group has the right to self-identify. In fact, established by the previous President and ex-General Thein Sein on whose watch two separate waves of violent pogroms against the Rohingya and other Muslim communities took place, MHRC has been in the fore-front of denying the existence, identity, and history of the Rohingya people.

Mrs Saw Khin Tint is an even more unconscionable choice. A nationally-known Rakhine leader who is on the record condoning the slaughter of all Rohingya as early as December ‘12, within 2 months of the second wave of organized and state-sanctioned killing and community destruction of the Rohingya people, she gave a speech in which she remarked:

“Seeing their [non-Rohingya natives of Myanmar] great anger and compassion, and hear them say, ‘We just want to go and kill all of those Bengali people with our own hands!’ we’ve now got the advantage of gaining the support of all the national races all over Myanmar on the incidents that we’ve sacrificed so far.” (The bi-lingual English-Burmese transcript of the speech delivered by Saw Khin Tint at the gathering of the Rakhines in Yangon on 22 December 2012.)

“Bengali” is the inflammatory and insulting term extremist Buddhist nationalists use to imply that Rohingya do not belong to Burma, but rather are illegal interlopers from Bangladesh. This false narrative is the prime excuse the genocidaires have been using to facilitate the Rohingya’s extermination.

International experts have unequivocally agreed with Burma Task Force’s strong designation of the Rohingya persecution as ‘genocide’ — including Professor Amartya Sen, Suu Kyi’s teacher at Delhi University and a close friend of her late husband Michael Aris. Professor Gregory Stanton, President of the Genocide Watch and past President of the International Association of Genocide Scholars, is in accord with this assessment. So are two widely publicized studies by Queen Mary University of London and Yale University Human Rights Law Clinic. It appears that, in the choice of her Commission members, Suu Kyi is far more interested in pleasing the ubiquitous monks than in heeding the warnings of trustworthy international scholars. Peace will not come to Rakhine State, let alone development, if pandering is a higher priority than good policy.

Despite 4 consecutive years of deafening silence, evasion, and dismissal of the concern as “exaggeration”, Suu Kyi should not be able to ignore the mounting criticisms from across the worldwide political spectrum — voices including Pope Francis, the Dalai Lama, George Soros, and Nobel Laureate Shirin Ebadi—alarmed that 150,000 Rohingya Muslims live in concentration camps and other “conditions calculated to bring about their destruction”. Nor, fortunately, can she prevent the international community, particularly the United States government, from respecting the group right of the Rohingya to self-identify. In brave opposition to the powerful monks’ hate groups, United States Ambassador to Burma Scot Marciel has held to the international norm of self identification & insisted that the Rohingya do exist. Around the globe, World Rohingya Day rallies were held last Friday, 19 August, to demonstrate the Rohingya’s positive existence and clear desert for equal rights in their home country.

Ms Suu Kyi must not shy away from her responsibility with regards to the Rohingya genocide. She must end the wide spread suffering and honor the Rohingya’s legitimate and verifiable claim to full and equal citizenship rights as Burmese citizens. International partners must not be fooled by empty or misleading gestures. Instead, to be true friends of Burma, local and international stakeholders must demand that more appropriate members be added to this Advisory Commission, and that the Commission be fully transparent in its deliberations on this urgent issue. The MaBaTha, the society established by extremist monks to “protect race and religion”, has been disbanded; this is an excellent first step, but will in no way stamp out the hateful prejudices of many Rakhine and other Burmese against the defenseless Rohingya minority. It is imperative that Suu Kyi include Rohingya voices on this Commission, and that concrete steps be taken to restore balance, equality & human decency in Rakhine State.


Abdul Malik Mujahid is President of Sound Vision; Chair of Burma Task Force USA

Follow Abdul Malik Mujahid on Twitter: www.twitter.com/malikmujahid


(Photo: AFP)

By Tun Khin 
Huffington Post
August 10, 2016

Earlier this year the United Nations published a report ‘Rohingya Muslims and other minorities in Myanmar’, which concluded that human rights violations against us could amount to crimes against humanity.

The report also stated that the government of Burma needed to take urgent action to end the anti-Rohingya policies of past governments. The response of the NLD led government and rest of the international community was silence. Once again, evidence of violations of international law have been provided, and once again no action has been taken. Our suffering goes on.

Worse, the day after the UN report was published, European Union diplomats based in Burma announced that in response to a demand by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to avoid using the word Rohingya, they would also not use the word Rohingya when talking about Rohingya people.

The denial of our ethnic identity is an integral part of the discrimination that we face. Nationalists and the government administration under former President Thein Sein have deliberately and tactically escalated controversy over the use of the name Rohingya as part of their campaign to say we are not an ethnic group in Burma and don’t belong there. They called us Bengali instead, claiming we are immigrants from Bangladesh. Instead of standing up to these people and their lies, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has said because the name is controversial, diplomats should call us ‘Muslims from Rakhine state’.

This is seen as a victory by nationalists. Rather than being pacified by this so-called compromise, they are now demanding the Burmese government officially call us Bengali. Not calling us Rohingya has encouraged them. In effect, the government of Burma and European Union have sided with racists and nationalists rather than with the oppressed and vulnerable.

My people are dying in the camps where they fled to four years ago after they fled mobs burning their homes and villagers. They are dying in part because the new government has kept in place severe restrictions on delivery of aid. In towns and villages my people live in poverty and fear, afraid of attack or arrest at any time. My people are denied the right to travel around the country, are denied citizenship, and denied the right to vote. We are denied access to healthcare. Our children are denied access to higher and university education. We had so much hope in an NLD government, but so far, since they came to power, things have continued to get worse, not better.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi says her government needs time and space to deal with this issue. As Rohingya we understand that there is much hatred against us in Burma. Fully addressing this will take time. But in the short term restrictions on aid can be lifted, action taken against those inciting hatred and violence, and the process of reforming the 1982 citizenship law which is at the root of depriving us of so many of our rights, could be started. My people are dying and suffering so much, we don’t have time. We need action now.

At the same time, violations of law don’t get much more serious than crimes against humanity. Yet having concluded that these crimes might be happening, no action is being taken by the UN or government of Burma. Imagine if a police force said a murder had been committed, but we are not going to investigate it. That’s the equivalent of what the United Nations are doing now.

At a time when there is so much hope for so many others in Burma, this is our most desperate hour. Pressure needs to be placed on the NLD led government to lift government restrictions on humanitarian aid to the Rohingya still living in squalid camps four years after being forced to flee their homes. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi must be made to live up to her previous statement that the discriminatory 1982 citizenship law should be reviewed. And the United Nations must establish an international investigation into human rights violations against my people. Next month’s UN General Assembly sessions are the opportunity to do this.

Report after report have concluded that multiple violations of international law are being committed against the Rohingya. No government can say they don’t know what is going on. It is to their shame that they allowed it to carry on.

Tun Khin is President of Burmese Rohingya Organisation UK and Leading voice of the Rohingya in Exile.

Rohingya and Bangleshi migrants wait onboard the boat before being transported to shore off the coast of Julok, in Aceh province, IndonesiaSyifa/Antara Foto/Reuters

By Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat
July 27, 2016

Article 2 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights states that all individuals have rights based upon their race, colour, gender, language, religion, property, and others. But, unfortunately, not everyone enjoys all of these privileges; the Rohingya community is a prime example.

Born as a Rohingya in Myanmar is considered as a big mistake, a disgrace, and an abominable sin that must be borne. They face hatred from their fellow countrymen and injustice from their government. The consequence is clear. The Rohingyas have become the butt of all forms of injustice: living in Rakhine state that resemble a ghetto; prohibited from living in their homeland without the government’s permission; not recognised as one of 135 legitimate ethnic groups in Myanmar; not considered citizens of their own country; and expressly forbidden from participating in all forms of politics. The reason for such discrimination is simple; they belong to the Rohingya ethnic minority. Their skins are not as light as other Myanmarese and they are not Buddhist.

While historians continue to argue over the origin of Rohingyas, whether they are indigenous to Rakhine state or migrants from Bengal during British colonialism, it cannot be denied that the Rohingyas have inhabited Myanmar for hundreds of years. This is evidenced by a census conducted by the British in 1891, which reported approximately 58,255 Muslims living in Arakan; known presently as Rakhine state. Nonetheless, the current number of the Rohingya community continues to erode. Even in Aung Mingalar, a ghetto area in Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine state, only 4,000 Rohingyas remain. This population decline is caused by Rakhine state no longer being friendly towards Rohingyas and forcing people to leave their homelands.

Leaving the Rakhine state is essential for the Rohingyas. To resist is to surrender their lives to the Buddhist extremists who target them. History doesn’t lie. Abominations against Rohingyas in 2012, for example, have resulted in hundreds of deaths. Ironically, these inhumane actions were supported and orchestrated by many Buddhist religious leaders through their religious classes that reek of chauvinism. They tell their followers that if ethnic Rohingyas are not crushed, Myanmar will become a Muslim country and their position as a majority will turn into a minority. Of course, all such claims are unfounded.

One Buddhist figure most active in spreading the seeds of hatred against Rohingyas is Ashin Wirathu. Head of the 969 movement, a controversial Buddhist group in Myanmar, he regards Islam as the greatest threat to the country. Therefore, he believes that its development must be suppressed by making the lives of its adherents uncomfortable. Strategies adopted by Wirathu include urging people to boycott Muslim-owned shops, prohibiting interracial marriage, and disseminating the notion that mosques are ‘enemy bases.’ Therefore, it makes sense that Wirathu is considered by many as the ‘Bin Laden of Burma.’

The Myanmar government deliberately helps suppression of the Rohingya community through official policies. For instance, these people are not permittedto have more than two children. Young couples who wish to get married should seek permission from the government.

Efforts to disrupt the lives of Rohingya have troubling consequences. Besides those who have been slaughtered, thousands more have been forced to leave their homes. Many decide to risk their lives crossing the ocean in search of shelter. Unmitigated, the number of ‘boat people’ - a term used to describe Rohingyas fleeing Myanmar by sea - for the first three months of 2015 alone has reached25,000 people. Today, this number continues to rise.

Unfortunately, fleeing suppression in Myanmar does not necessarily end their unfortunate fate as Rohingyas. Stories of their grief continue with different plots. 100 individuals were reportedly killed in Indonesia, and 200 were killed on their way to Malaysia. It is important to note that these figures are those that are known; many more lives have been lost at sea, which are, of course, more difficult to report.

Throughout this time, Rohingya who seek shelter in neighbouring countries have been kicked to and fro by those governments. Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand deny these people entry for a variety of reasons. Those who have successfully entered also receive unpleasant welcomes. They are not awarded permanent residency and have to content themselves with remaining in the refugee camps where there are limited water and food supplies.

The return of Myanmar to the system of democracy with the election of Aung San Suu Kyi as the country’s counsellor had not brought fresh wind to the Rohingya community. Even the Nobel Peace Prize receiver still refuses to call the ethnic minority by the name ‘Rohingya’, because they are not considered citizens of Myanmar. Not only that, she was also furious when she found out that the person who interviewed her on BBC Today, Mishal Husain, is a Muslim. Such discriminatory and racist attitudes certainly make many people question the propriety of San Suu Kyi to being a recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize.

What happens to Rohingyas in Myanmar is undoubtedly inhumane and unacceptable. It is time for the international community to put pressure on the Myanmar government to stop their suppression of the Rohingyas. Basic human rights, as they are written in the UDHR, must be afforded to everyone, including the Rohingya community.

This piece is co-authored with Muhammad Beni Saputra, a postgraduate student at the University of Manchester.


NYEIN CHAN NAING VIA GETTY IMAGES

By Jack Healey
May 30, 2016

In Burma, the urgency for just leadership is intensifying. Leadership defines a nation. Some leaders take their country higher and some take their country lower. Those on the lower side are forgotten and those on the high side are remembered; legacy counts. I strongly believe that Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) is coming to a fork in the road for her career. In the last election, she won every district. Her nation believes in her. Despite her house arrest, her people stayed with her for 16 years and never wavered. Her numerous international honors, including the Nobel Peace Prize, prove the world believes in her. But moments come that define leadership. No one asks for these moments but they do come. Nelson Mandela chose a positive path and Robert Mugabe took the lower path. I hope ASSK takes the higher path. Let me explain.



In my time as a Peace Corps director in Lesotho, 1977-1981, two prominent leaders existed in southern Africa, Mandela of South Africa and Mugabe of Zimbabwe. Although both men would eventually lead their nations, during my time in Lesotho, they faced disenfranchisement by their respective governments. Mandela was in jail and the Mugabe was in exile, fighting from Mozambique to topple Ian Smith of Rhodesia. Despite their perilous positions, both men had devout people behind them, including their militaries. While Mandela and Mugabe would rise to power, the decisions these men made polarized their legacies. Mandela moved his new government to the West and Mugabe pushed his government to the East. Depending on where you were living in southern Africa, the UK and the USA became friend or foe.

Mandela died with the world weeping in respect. When Mugabe goes, Zimbabwe will be weeping as well but in infamy, not respect. Mandela stayed for one election and he was determined to use his time to improve South Africa as best he could. To the contrary, Mugabe ran for himself in multiple elections, which have drawn opposition from critics who claim the elections were undemocratic. He has been in office since 1987. History will remember Mandela kindly but will shun the long serving Zimbabwean President.

Under Mugabe, Zimbabwe has almost become a failed state, while South Africa limps along under poor leaders like Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma. Despite these recent failures, South Africa will always have the legacy of Mandela to be proud of and a standard worth remembering, set by the likes of Rovina prisoners from theAfrican National Congress (ANC). Thus, the southern African example displays the two kinds of leadership. Mandela a success and Mugabe a failure. Although Burma is a world away, ASSK will be judged in exactly the same manner as the likes of Mandela and Mugabe.

In February of 1999, my partner and I were admitted into the headquarters of the National League for Democracy, a little wooden home really, and met ASSK. Like Mandela and Mugabe, ASSK had been disenfranchised from her government. She had been placed under house arrest, where she remained for over a decade. Due to her situation, everyone told us we would be unable to meet with her. My taxi driver whispered to me “she gives out rice once a week” and drove us past the NLD headquarters. My partner sat inside in a sarong. She waited and waited. Finally, a white Toyota drove up close to the entrance. Quickly, a woman in white jumped out and dashed inside. There were many soldiers around the general area. My partner waited as ASSK met her followers and discussed matters. Finally her opportunity came, and she asked ASSK if she would meet me. Fortunately, she agreed.

My partner came out and got me. I spent about 15 to 20 minutes speaking with ASSK. I got her autograph and a few photos. Her words were simple and clear, “tell everyone to keep unity and strength. If we stay as one movement, we will do fine.” Leaving Rangoon that night felt awfully good. Not many beyond the diplomats had even seen her for years, and thus I felt our trip had been wonderfully successful.

The next month I sent a delegation with Ebet Roberts and Nancy Anderson to do the same visit, except this time to record. They did and brought back rare footage. I tried to give that footage to CNN as news but the producer told me “you are making news,” we do not make news we cover it. I asked him how would she call for a press conference to accommodate him since she was under house arrest? No answer and no coverage on CNN.

Now 17 years later, the Nobel winner and leader of Burma (I call it Burma until the 25 percent of military in parliament are no longer automatically part of the legal and legislative process) who won every district is struggling to get a hold of the vast government and deal with the people’s problems like education, health, housing and so on.

In part, her problems stem from Burma’s ethnic diversity. Historically, the tribes along the Thai border have resisted the Burman majority government. These tribes would like at least a “Montreal” type arrangement with their government. They have faced military abuse for years. Soldiers have become infamous for raping and killing tribe members. Despite their marginalization by the Bamar majority, the tribes threw in their support for ASSK. The political hopes of these tribes run high, and it will not be easy to meet those expectations by Rangoon’s new government.

Recently, when Secretary Kerry was in Rangoon, ASSK asked for time when it came to the issue of the Rohingya. In fact, she asked that that name Rohingya might be avoided so as to give her time to set this situation with the Rohingyas. All this sounds good until you dig into the facts of how the Rohingyas are treated on a daily basis.

The Rohingyas are a Muslim minority that has existed in Burma for centuries. This is a historical fact, though much of the Burman majority resist this fact. Buddhist monks are part and parcel of the opposition that are attacking, killing and relocating these people. The Buddhists feel that the Rohingyas are outsiders that threaten the sovereignty of the Burman people. Due to the opposition they face, the Rohingyas live in squalor. They do not possess papers and are not citizens because the government refuses to issue them passports. Simply put, they are poor and unprotected. Thousands have attempted to escape Burma by sea to avoid rape, regular beatings, burning of villages, and starvation. Unlike 17 years ago, when I attempted to give CNN the recordings of ASSK under house arrest, the Western press is on the case. Secretary Kerry raised this basic issue of human rights with ASSK.

Her response was lackluster. Instead of taking action, she wanted more time to address the issue. Furthermore, she asked the nations of the world to stop referring to the Rohingya, which can be seen as a concession to national extremists. I have been one of those urging space and time; however, we have simply run out of time. Human rights of the Rohingya must be protected. Not tomorrow but today. She must demand an end to the violence led by the Buddhist monks; the military and vigilantes need to step back. She must arrange with the United Nations to get foodstuff into this northeast area of Burma.

With their nutritional concerns cared for, ASSK must begin a process, legal and fair, to find out who is and who is not a citizen. National and international scholars must settle on criteria. The world’s decency cannot wait any longer. Steps to improve Burma can be taken immediately. These steps are normal and ASSK could get help from around the world if she chose. Although she is highly respected, if the human rights concerns of the Rohingya are not addressed, she is about to lose the halo given to her for her courage and determination to deliver freedom and democracy to her people. Before her lie two paths, one leads to a Mandela-like legacy and the other to infamy of Mugabe.

To travel towards the path taken by Mandela, ASSK needs to give herself the advice she gave to me and my partner... unity and strength. Stay united...Human Rights Now is not a slogan. It is a necessity for a democratic leader and a Nobel winner. The world is asking Aung San Suu Kyi to address this issue with compassion and decency. Despite the decades of abuse, these qualities will guarantee an eventual solution for Rohingyas.

Jack Healey is founder of Human Rights Action Center

(Photo: Reuters)

By Erin Murphy
December 3, 2015

This piece was co-authored by Inle Advisory Group Principal, Erin Murphy, and Fall Research Assistant, Hla Hpone "Jack" Myint

The November 8 Myanmar general election was regarded by both local and international watchers as the country's first credible election. The election represents a critical milestone for this fledgling democracy; however, Myanmar's future political, social, and economic trajectory depends heavily on the transfer of power and ensuing formation of government and how the new ruling party is able to govern. The official results were finalized on November 20 with the main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), emerging as the clear winner. The election not only handed the NLD a long-awaited win, but also framed questions and exposed rising or falling fortunes for everyone interested in Myanmar's future.

Winners

Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD: Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD secured a landslide victory in both houses of parliament and in the State and Regional Assemblies; the NLD's margin of victory allows it to form the new government without a coalition. The NLD will hold nearly every major office--President, one of two Vice Presidents, Speakers of both chambers of parliament, and the cabinet--with the exception of the other military-appointed Vice President and the Ministers for Defense, Home, and Border affairs. Aung San Suu Kyi remains constitutionally prohibited from becoming President. However, she has made it very clear, amidst some controversy, that she intends to take a role "above the presidency" (even though the constitution prevents anyone from being "above" the presidency) and that the yet-to-be revealed NLD President will make all decisions solely along party lines.

Foreign Direct Investment: Aung San Suu Kyi's international image and the NLD's recently stated commitment to financial sector reform to attract international businesses should provide a boost to foreign investment, particularly from those who have treated the Myanmar market cautiously. In the past two years, Asian companies have flocked to Myanmar, increasing foreign direct investment (FDI) five-fold to US$8 billion in the 2014/15 fiscal year. Meanwhile, most Western businesses sat on the sidelines and many never moved past the 'window-shopping' stage, feeling that the political and reputational risk associated was too great and the return on investment too small. The NLD win has significantly diminished those concerns. Myanmar can expect an influx of western businesses within the next fiscal year, although many are anxious to know the NLD's specific economic policies and approach to FDI.

The United States: With a peaceful and successful election accomplished, the Obama Administration's Myanmar policy emerges as a clear success. Myanmar, particularly Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD, enjoys strong--and rare--bipartisan support in Washington, and her party's victory almost certainly ensures better relations between the U.S. and Myanmar. On November 19, Senate Majority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell and Sen. John McCain introduced a resolution congratulating Myanmar on its election won by the opposition party in which it "calls upon the President to take further steps toward normalization of relations with Myanmar and consider the potential relaxation of restrictions should the USDP and Military respect the election results and proceed with a prompt and orderly transition in power". The U.S. is however unlikely to announce major policy changes or dismantle sanctions entirely before the NLD government is firmly in place and the country's political trajectory continues to move forward. 

The Union Election Commission: The UEC was subjected to much criticism for voter list errors during the pre-election period. However, the Election Day itself was widely viewed both by local and international observers as a success. There were reportedly as few as 12 instances of electoral violence on November 8, and observers noted that the process was relatively free and fair. There remain some issues, including advanced voting irregularities and pre-cast ballots, as well of course as the inability of nearly 2 million citizens abroad to cast votes, and the exclusion of Rohingyas and others from the voter list. At least for now, these issues were overshadowed by how well Election Day was managed.

Losers

Thein Sein and the USDP: The results announced on November 21 confirmed the electoral annihilation of the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). Many USDP members believed the party would lose its majority, but few expected the losses to be so staggering. Many high level USDP officials, including Party Chairman Htay Oo and Lower House Speaker Shwe Mann, surprisingly conceded early on, and President Thein Sein and the military promised a peaceful transfer of power. The voters clearly were not swayed by the party's record while in government, or by Buddhist nationalist support for the USDP. Thein Sein is unlikely to serve a second term; the military can select a nominee for the president, who will at least serve as a vice president, but will probably choose current Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing or someone else similar. Thein Sein and the USDP will likely conduct a post mortem to examine their loss, but it is readily apparent that the electorate did not just cast votes for the NLD, they were also cast against the military.

Ma Ba Tha and the 969 Movements: Myanmar's increasingly vocal Buddhist nationalist movements, personified in the Organization for the Protection of Race and Religion (Ma Ba Tha) and 969 organizations, actively sought to influence the election by outwardly supporting the USDP and Thein Sein, particularly for his role in passing the controversial race and religion laws, and deriding the NLD. Many election watchers--as well as prominent extremist monk U Wirathu--thought the movements would garner votes for the USDP and limit enthusiasm for the NLD, especially in rural areas. He has since cautiously acknowledged his surprise at the NLD win; he is probably more shocked that he was unable to convince the massive crowds attending his lectures to vote for the USDP. U Wirathu has already warned the NLD to leave the race and religion laws untouched. While unlikely to directly attack Ma Ba Tha or 969, the NLD has already challenged the movements and will mostly likely seek ways to curb their influence while preserving its own religious stripes. The NLD could easily achieve this by aligning themselves with leaders of the increasingly popular anti-hate speech campaign, 969's counter movement, which comprises a new wave of progressive monks, civil society leaders and women's rights activists.

Ethnic Parties: Perhaps one of the more surprising aspects of the election are the losses incurred by the ethnic parties, particularly in the State and Regional parliaments where they were expected to claim big wins. Popular ethnic parties such as the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy and the Arakan National Party secured the highest number of seats, but only captured 1-3% of the seats in both houses of parliament. With an NLD supermajority and no need for coalition governance, ethnic parties could be marginalized and have little say in policymaking. The NLD will very likely govern in a highly centralized manner and tensions could emerge in the near future if ethnic representatives are not involved in major decisions. Their only certain leverage in parliament is in amending the constitution, a process that requires all non-military members of parliament plus one military vote. With regards to the ongoing peace process, three major ethnic rebel groups in northeastern Myanmar's Shan state - the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Arakan Army (AA) - have recently vowed to support a new government led by the NLD and end all ongoing conflict in the Kokang self-administered zone. While still early to tell how well the NLD will do in the overall peace process, this is definitely a good sign.

Draw

Rohingya and Muslim minorities: The Thein Sein Administration exploited growing Buddhist extremism in the country and targeted Muslim minorities through passage of race and religion protection laws, which were popular with the public and thought to have potential to sway voter opinion in the administration's favor. Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD remained virtually silent on the subject, likely to limit a loss of voter support, but did acknowledge that the anti-Muslim rhetoric and violence is an issue. Aung San Suu Kyi has responded to criticism from the international community on her lack of engagement on the issue citing her party's minority status in government limits as an impediment. An NLD victory will, by no means, ensure an end to anti-Muslim discrimination in Myanmar. But the international community can expect there to be a reasonable long-term solution to protect and (eventually) include Myanmar's Rohingya and Muslim populations.

Military: The military-backed USDP was unable to secure a parliamentary majority or even enough seats to form a coalition with the military or mount a credible opposition. Despite what could be perceived as a clear loss, the military still remains Myanmar's most powerful institution, and its role is secured through powers granted by the 2008 constitution. In addition to a guaranteed 25% of the seats in all parliamentary bodies, the military controls three major ministries (Defense, Home, and Border Affairs), and has the authority to declare a State of Emergency and again usher in military rule at any time for reasons of national security. Even with an NLD government, it is unlikely that these constitutional provisions will be amended in the short term; the previous and only attempt so far to amend the constitution was blocked earlier this year. Additionally, parliament holds no oversight of the military budget or jurisdiction over military-related criminal affairs; prosecutorial powers are governed by a court martial system. The military has stated publicly that it would honor the victory of Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD, and has expressed willingness to work together with the new government, at least for now.

Lower House Speaker Shwe Mann: Shwe Mann's work as Speaker, his ties to Aung San Suu Kyi, and his recent removal from the USDP Chairmanship due to disagreements with military hardliners, have collectively reshaped his public image. He went from being reviled by the general public to one of the most admired political figures. However, his rise in popularity has meant the loss of the military and USDP's trust. He does not have the NLD's full support and backing either. Aung San Suu Kyi may find a role for him in her new government, though she has affirmed he will not take the presidency. Regardless, it appears that the events of this year area temporary setback for Shwe Mann, and he may find new roles in politics and in future administrations.

China: China maintained "a special relationship" with Myanmar throughout its several dictatorial periods. Prior to the transition, China provided the ruling junta political protection in the international community in exchange for favorable economic treatment, including import and export contracts, earmarked tenders, and deals in Myanmar's extractive industries and energy sectors. Despite diversified foreign investment since Thein Sein's government took office in 2011, China consistently remains one of the top investors in Myanmar's economy. However, bilateral ties have deteriorated in the past few years due to growing anti-Chinese sentiment, driven by the scale of Chinese interest and involvement in exploiting Myanmar's natural resources, and President Thein Sein's shift to a populist agenda tapping this sentiment. China still maintains close ties with Myanmar's military. Despite these strains, even Aung San Suu Kyi knows Myanmar cannot afford to abandon China in its embrace of the West, as their economic ties are too deep and the countries are geopolitically and culturally intertwined. Her record in dealing with China has demonstrated diplomatic savvy. When Aung San Suu Kyi's committee investigated the controversial Chinese-operated Letpadaung copper mine, accused of damaging the environment and producing few jobs for Myanmar economy, she sided with the Chinese and told the residents to end their protests because Myanmar could not risk alienating foreign investors, particularly China. Additionally, during her first official visit to China in June 2015, Aung San Suu Kyi declined to comment on imprisoned fellow Nobel Peace Prize winner Liu Xiaobo, to the dismay of human rights watchers. She recently pledged, following her victory, to pay "special attention" to bilateral ties, adding that foreign investments would need public support to help improve relations. In an interview with China's state-run Xinhua news agency, Aung San Suu Kyi said Myanmar had no enemies, but relations with neighbors were more sensitive than others and needed to be carefully handled. "Ties between neighbors are always more delicate than that between countries far apart. We'll pay special attention to our relations in order to make them smooth, effective and clear." Therefore, the NLD electoral win can be seen as having a balanced, if not potentially positive, impact on China.

Civil Society: Many well-known pro-democracy activists and groups--including the popular 88 Generation Students--were not included in the NLD's candidate list prior to the election, and some who ran independently lost in the election. Nonetheless, prominent civil society leaders have come to collectively support the NLD's victory as their own. The question remains as to whether CSOs will play an instrumental role, if any, under an NLD government. For one, their joint work on voter education and constitutional amendments show promise for further collaboration. Additionally, Aung San Suu Kyi's attempts to distance herself from her activist image (the human rights icon that international media has portrayed her to be for the past two decades) and move into a political one, both locally and internationally, calls for the need to have a purely activist-oriented platform that she can indirectly be involved in but distance herself, if need be, without taking a political hit.

Erin Murphy Founder of Inle Advisory Group, focused on Myanmar and Asia, passport filler

ASANKA BRENDON RATNAYAKE/ANADOLU AGENCY/GETTY IMAGES
Around one million Rohingya live in Myanmar.

By Charlotte Alfred
November 15, 2015

“It is very dangerous to leave, but I prefer it to living here in the camp.”

After months of monsoon rains, it is sailing season again in the seas south of Myanmar.

Six months ago, the plight of the Myanmar's Rohingya minority briefly garnered international attention when they were among thousands of starving refugees and migrants abandoned in the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal. 

Human rights groups now say a new refugee crisis looms, as members of the Rohingya minority are excluded from the dramatic reforms taking place in their country. Amnesty International recently warned that thousands more people could set sail in the coming months, risking a repeat of the May crisis. 

"With the monsoons over in Southeast Asia, traffickers and smugglers will undoubtedly resume their trade," Anna Shea, a refugee researcher at Amnesty International, wrote last month, urging that regional governments "not wait for another tragedy to unfold."

CHRISTOPHE ARCHAMBAULT/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
Thousands of Rohingya were stranded at sea in May when they were abandoned by traffickers and denied entry to Thailand and neighboring countries.

The momentous changes in Myanmar since 2010, exemplified by the victory of Aung San Suu Kyi’s opposition National League for Democracy party in last Sunday’s election, have had little impact on the Muslim Rohingya people.

Most of the Rohingya, who number around 1 million in Myanmar, were barred from voting in the election. They are the largest group of stateless people in the world, having been denied citizenship in Myanmar under a 1982 law, and are subject to numerous legal restrictions, including requiring permission to travel, marry or have more than two children in some areas.

Around 140,000 Rohingya are confined in internal displacement camps since a wave of deadly violence in 2012. “This is like living in an open-air prison,” Muralam, a 36 year-old Rohingya man planning to flee a displacement camp in Myanmar by boat, told Britain’s The Independent newspaper earlier this month. “It is very dangerous to leave, but I prefer it to living here in the camp.”

“While the Rohingya have been persecuted for decades, they have faced an intensified and unrelenting campaign of state-led terror since 2012,” Penny Green, director of the International State Crime Initiative at Queen Mary University of London, said in a statement last month. “The situation is sufficiently desperate to warrant comparisons with Germany in the 1930s and Rwanda in the early 1990s.” 

JONAS GRATZER/GETTY IMAGES
Buddhist nationalists say the Rohingya are illegal Bengali immigrants.

Buddhist nationalists in Myanmar argue that the group are illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, while the Rohingya say they have long lived in the country. Nationalists upped anti-Muslim and anti-Rohingya rhetoric in the runup the election, and even Suu Kyi told foreign reporters to “not exaggerate the problems.”

Yet the gravity of these problems was highlighted when thousands of Rohingya fleeing Myanmar, along with Bangladeshis trying to escape poverty, were stranded at sea for weeks without food or water in May. People smugglers abandoned their boats at sea when Thai authorities launched a crackdown on human trafficking, and the overcrowded and squalid vessels were turned away by Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. The United Nations counted at least 370 deaths during the crisis, while human rights groups warned that hundreds more may have drowned.

Associated Press

Several thousand people were eventually allowed to stay temporarily in Malaysia and Indonesia, but only until May 2016. It is unclear where they will go next.

Since the rains subsided, there are already reports that hundreds of people left Bangladesh and Myanmar in at least two boats in recent weeks.

"We have had reports of a limited number having left, but not anything like the numbers last year, so far," Joe Lowry, Asia-Pacific spokesperson for the International Organization for Migration, told The WorldPost by email. "We want to avoid at all costs the crisis situation which erupted earlier in the year."

Experts say that smugglers are also exploring new trafficking routes to circumvent the Thai crackdown, including taking boats directly to Malaysia, or transporting people overland and by air.

"People are still desperate to leave. If you block one way, people will find another way, and that might be more dangerous and more risky for the people," Julia Mayerhofer, interim executive director of the Asia Pacific Refugee Rights Network, told Reuters last month.

Several international organizations have recently warned of a genocide against the Rohingya in Myanmar.

“All of the warning signs [of genocide] are happening to us today,” one Rohingya advocate told the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, part of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, earlier this year. “They want us all to go away,” another advocate warned.

Rohingya Exodus